Revenue Miss: Yintai Gold Co., Ltd. Fell 16% Short Of Analyst Revenue Estimates And Analysts Have Been Revising Their Models

As you might know, Yintai Gold Co., Ltd. (SZSE:000975) last week released its latest yearly, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. Yintai Gold reported an earnings miss, with CN¥8.1b revenues falling 16% short of analyst models, and statutory earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.51 also coming in slightly below expectations. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Yintai Gold after the latest results.

See our latest analysis for Yintai Gold

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Yintai Gold's eleven analysts is for revenues of CN¥10.1b in 2024. This reflects a sizeable 24% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to bounce 35% to CN¥0.69. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥10.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.65 in 2024. If anything, the analysts look to have become slightly more optimistic overall; while they decreased their revenue forecasts, EPS predictions increased and ultimately earnings are more important.

The average price target rose 6.6% to CN¥18.61, with the analysts signalling that the improved earnings outlook is the key driver of value for shareholders - enough to offset the reduction in revenue estimates. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Yintai Gold analyst has a price target of CN¥21.50 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CN¥16.65. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Yintai Gold is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Yintai Gold's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 24% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 13% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 11% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Yintai Gold is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Yintai Gold following these results. They also downgraded Yintai Gold's revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. Even so, earnings are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Yintai Gold analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Yintai Gold , and understanding it should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.