Cathay Biotech Inc.'s (SHSE:688065) Stock Is Rallying But Financials Look Ambiguous: Will The Momentum Continue?

Cathay Biotech's (SHSE:688065) stock is up by a considerable 29% over the past three months. But the company's key financial indicators appear to be differing across the board and that makes us question whether or not the company's current share price momentum can be maintained. In this article, we decided to focus on Cathay Biotech's ROE.

Return on equity or ROE is an important factor to be considered by a shareholder because it tells them how effectively their capital is being reinvested. Simply put, it is used to assess the profitability of a company in relation to its equity capital.

View our latest analysis for Cathay Biotech

How Is ROE Calculated?

ROE can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Cathay Biotech is:

2.6% = CN¥394m ÷ CN¥15b (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2024).

The 'return' is the income the business earned over the last year. That means that for every CN¥1 worth of shareholders' equity, the company generated CN¥0.03 in profit.

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company’s earnings growth potential. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.

Cathay Biotech's Earnings Growth And 2.6% ROE

It is hard to argue that Cathay Biotech's ROE is much good in and of itself. Even compared to the average industry ROE of 6.2%, the company's ROE is quite dismal. Therefore, it might not be wrong to say that the five year net income decline of 4.0% seen by Cathay Biotech was possibly a result of it having a lower ROE. We believe that there also might be other aspects that are negatively influencing the company's earnings prospects. For example, the business has allocated capital poorly, or that the company has a very high payout ratio.

So, as a next step, we compared Cathay Biotech's performance against the industry and were disappointed to discover that while the company has been shrinking its earnings, the industry has been growing its earnings at a rate of 4.9% over the last few years.

Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. It’s important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. If you're wondering about Cathay Biotech's's valuation, check out this gauge of its price-to-earnings ratio, as compared to its industry.

Is Cathay Biotech Making Efficient Use Of Its Profits?

Looking at its three-year median payout ratio of 30% (or a retention ratio of 70%) which is pretty normal, Cathay Biotech's declining earnings is rather baffling as one would expect to see a fair bit of growth when a company is retaining a good portion of its profits. It looks like there might be some other reasons to explain the lack in that respect. For example, the business could be in decline.

Additionally, Cathay Biotech has paid dividends over a period of three years, which means that the company's management is rather focused on keeping up its dividend payments, regardless of the shrinking earnings.

Conclusion

On the whole, we feel that the performance shown by Cathay Biotech can be open to many interpretations. While the company does have a high rate of reinvestment, the low ROE means that all that reinvestment is not reaping any benefit to its investors, and moreover, its having a negative impact on the earnings growth. Wrapping up, we would proceed with caution with this company and one way of doing that would be to look at the risk profile of the business. You can see the 1 risk we have identified for Cathay Biotech by visiting our risks dashboard for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.