Stock Analysis

Pulling back 5.3% this week, Sanwei Holding GroupLtd's SHSE:603033) five-year decline in earnings may be coming into investors focus

SHSE:603033
Source: Shutterstock

The worst result, after buying shares in a company (assuming no leverage), would be if you lose all the money you put in. But when you pick a company that is really flourishing, you can make more than 100%. Long term Sanwei Holding Group Co.,Ltd (SHSE:603033) shareholders would be well aware of this, since the stock is up 162% in five years. Also pleasing for shareholders was the 34% gain in the last three months. But this move may well have been assisted by the reasonably buoyant market (up 28% in 90 days).

While the stock has fallen 5.3% this week, it's worth focusing on the longer term and seeing if the stocks historical returns have been driven by the underlying fundamentals.

Check out our latest analysis for Sanwei Holding GroupLtd

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

During five years of share price growth, Sanwei Holding GroupLtd actually saw its EPS drop 27% per year.

Essentially, it doesn't seem likely that investors are focused on EPS. Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.

We doubt the modest 0.4% dividend yield is attracting many buyers to the stock. On the other hand, Sanwei Holding GroupLtd's revenue is growing nicely, at a compound rate of 22% over the last five years. It's quite possible that management are prioritizing revenue growth over EPS growth at the moment.

The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
SHSE:603033 Earnings and Revenue Growth December 3rd 2024

We're pleased to report that the CEO is remunerated more modestly than most CEOs at similarly capitalized companies. It's always worth keeping an eye on CEO pay, but a more important question is whether the company will grow earnings throughout the years. You can see what analysts are predicting for Sanwei Holding GroupLtd in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, Sanwei Holding GroupLtd's TSR for the last 5 years was 167%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

Investors in Sanwei Holding GroupLtd had a tough year, with a total loss of 23% (including dividends), against a market gain of about 7.8%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 22% per year over half a decade. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Sanwei Holding GroupLtd better, we need to consider many other factors. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Sanwei Holding GroupLtd (at least 1 which is concerning) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

Of course Sanwei Holding GroupLtd may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.