Aier Eye Hospital Group Co., Ltd. (SZSE:300015) Fell Short of Analyst Expectations: Here's What You Need To Know

As you might know, Aier Eye Hospital Group Co., Ltd. (SZSE:300015) last week released its latest first-quarter, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. Earnings fell badly short of analyst estimates, with CN¥5.2b revenues missing by 18%, and statutory earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.097 falling short of forecasts by some -17%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

See our latest analysis for Aier Eye Hospital Group

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Aier Eye Hospital Group's 19 analysts is for revenues of CN¥22.8b in 2024. This would reflect a meaningful 11% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to ascend 12% to CN¥0.42. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥25.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.47 in 2024. It looks like sentiment has declined substantially in the aftermath of these results, with a real cut to revenue estimates and a substantial drop in earnings per share numbers as well.

The consensus price target fell 15% to CN¥19.84, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading valuation estimates. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Aier Eye Hospital Group analyst has a price target of CN¥31.87 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CN¥13.50. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Aier Eye Hospital Group'shistorical trends, as the 15% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 is roughly in line with the 17% annual growth over the past five years. Juxtapose this against our data, which suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 14% per year. So although Aier Eye Hospital Group is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's only growing at about the rate of the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Aier Eye Hospital Group. They also downgraded their revenue estimates, although as we saw earlier, forecast growth is only expected to be about the same as the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Aier Eye Hospital Group analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Aier Eye Hospital Group that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.