Qingdao Foods Co., Ltd.'s (SZSE:001219) Shares May Have Run Too Fast Too Soon

There wouldn't be many who think Qingdao Foods Co., Ltd.'s (SZSE:001219) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 27.3x is worth a mention when the median P/E in China is similar at about 30x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/E.

For example, consider that Qingdao Foods' financial performance has been poor lately as its earnings have been in decline. One possibility is that the P/E is moderate because investors think the company might still do enough to be in line with the broader market in the near future. If you like the company, you'd at least be hoping this is the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.

View our latest analysis for Qingdao Foods

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Qingdao Foods, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Does Growth Match The P/E?

The only time you'd be comfortable seeing a P/E like Qingdao Foods' is when the company's growth is tracking the market closely.

Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 5.8%. This means it has also seen a slide in earnings over the longer-term as EPS is down 18% in total over the last three years. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of earnings growth.

In contrast to the company, the rest of the market is expected to grow by 36% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term earnings decline into perspective.

In light of this, it's somewhat alarming that Qingdao Foods' P/E sits in line with the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

The Key Takeaway

Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

Our examination of Qingdao Foods revealed its shrinking earnings over the medium-term aren't impacting its P/E as much as we would have predicted, given the market is set to grow. When we see earnings heading backwards and underperforming the market forecasts, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the moderate P/E lower. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve, it's challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

Before you settle on your opinion, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Qingdao Foods (1 is concerning!) that you should be aware of.

If you're unsure about the strength of Qingdao Foods' business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.