Results: Anhui Gujing Distillery Co., Ltd. Exceeded Expectations And The Consensus Has Updated Its Estimates

Last week, you might have seen that Anhui Gujing Distillery Co., Ltd. (SZSE:000596) released its second-quarter result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 2.2% to CN¥165 in the past week. The result was positive overall - although revenues of CN¥5.5b were in line with what the analysts predicted, Anhui Gujing Distillery surprised by delivering a statutory profit of CN¥2.85 per share, modestly greater than expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

View our latest analysis for Anhui Gujing Distillery

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Anhui Gujing Distillery's 14 analysts is for revenues of CN¥24.5b in 2024. This would reflect a modest 7.6% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to increase 8.7% to CN¥11.07. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥24.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥11.05 in 2024. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

With no major changes to earnings forecasts, the consensus price target fell 10% to CN¥264, suggesting that the analysts might have previously been hoping for an earnings upgrade. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Anhui Gujing Distillery, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CN¥389 and the most bearish at CN¥209 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Anhui Gujing Distillery's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Anhui Gujing Distillery'shistorical trends, as the 16% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 is roughly in line with the 19% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 12% per year. So it's pretty clear that Anhui Gujing Distillery is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Anhui Gujing Distillery's future valuation.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Anhui Gujing Distillery. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Anhui Gujing Distillery analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Anhui Gujing Distillery (at least 1 which shouldn't be ignored) , and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.