What Xi'an Tourism Co., Ltd.'s (SZSE:000610) 28% Share Price Gain Is Not Telling You

Xi'an Tourism Co., Ltd. (SZSE:000610) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting a 28% gain and recovering from prior weakness. Unfortunately, the gains of the last month did little to right the losses of the last year with the stock still down 12% over that time.

Since its price has surged higher, Xi'an Tourism's price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 6.5x might make it look like a sell right now compared to the wider Hospitality industry in China, where around half of the companies have P/S ratios below 4.9x and even P/S below 2x are quite common. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/S at face value as there may be an explanation why it's as high as it is.

See our latest analysis for Xi'an Tourism

How Has Xi'an Tourism Performed Recently?

Revenue has risen firmly for Xi'an Tourism recently, which is pleasing to see. Perhaps the market is expecting this decent revenue performance to beat out the industry over the near term, which has kept the P/S propped up. However, if this isn't the case, investors might get caught out paying too much for the stock.

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Xi'an Tourism, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/S?

In order to justify its P/S ratio, Xi'an Tourism would need to produce impressive growth in excess of the industry.

If we review the last year of revenue growth, the company posted a terrific increase of 19%. As a result, it also grew revenue by 17% in total over the last three years. Accordingly, shareholders would have probably been satisfied with the medium-term rates of revenue growth.

Comparing the recent medium-term revenue trends against the industry's one-year growth forecast of 26% shows it's noticeably less attractive.

With this in mind, we find it worrying that Xi'an Tourism's P/S exceeds that of its industry peers. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Final Word

Xi'an Tourism shares have taken a big step in a northerly direction, but its P/S is elevated as a result. Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-sales ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.

The fact that Xi'an Tourism currently trades on a higher P/S relative to the industry is an oddity, since its recent three-year growth is lower than the wider industry forecast. Right now we aren't comfortable with the high P/S as this revenue performance isn't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless there is a significant improvement in the company's medium-term performance, it will be difficult to prevent the P/S ratio from declining to a more reasonable level.

Plus, you should also learn about this 1 warning sign we've spotted with Xi'an Tourism.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Xi'an Tourism, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.