What Ribo Fashion Group Co., Ltd.'s (SHSE:603196) 52% Share Price Gain Is Not Telling You

Ribo Fashion Group Co., Ltd. (SHSE:603196) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 52% gain in the last month alone. Looking back a bit further, it's encouraging to see the stock is up 34% in the last year.

Following the firm bounce in price, given around half the companies in China's Luxury industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 1.7x, you may consider Ribo Fashion Group as a stock to avoid entirely with its 4.8x P/S ratio. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/S at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so lofty.

Check out our latest analysis for Ribo Fashion Group

How Ribo Fashion Group Has Been Performing

We'd have to say that with no tangible growth over the last year, Ribo Fashion Group's revenue has been unimpressive. Perhaps the market believes that revenue growth will improve markedly over current levels, inflating the P/S ratio. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Ribo Fashion Group, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The High P/S Ratio?

In order to justify its P/S ratio, Ribo Fashion Group would need to produce outstanding growth that's well in excess of the industry.

Taking a look back first, we see that there was hardly any revenue growth to speak of for the company over the past year. This isn't what shareholders were looking for as it means they've been left with a 3.7% decline in revenue over the last three years in total. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenue over that time.

In contrast to the company, the rest of the industry is expected to grow by 15% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term revenue decline into perspective.

With this in mind, we find it worrying that Ribo Fashion Group's P/S exceeds that of its industry peers. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Final Word

Shares in Ribo Fashion Group have seen a strong upwards swing lately, which has really helped boost its P/S figure. It's argued the price-to-sales ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

We've established that Ribo Fashion Group currently trades on a much higher than expected P/S since its recent revenues have been in decline over the medium-term. Right now we aren't comfortable with the high P/S as this revenue performance is highly unlikely to support such positive sentiment for long. Should recent medium-term revenue trends persist, it would pose a significant risk to existing shareholders' investments and prospective investors will have a hard time accepting the current value of the stock.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 1 warning sign for Ribo Fashion Group that you need to be mindful of.

If companies with solid past earnings growth is up your alley, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.