Reach Machinery Co., Ltd.'s (SZSE:301596) Shares Climb 32% But Its Business Is Yet to Catch Up

Reach Machinery Co., Ltd. (SZSE:301596) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting a 32% gain and recovering from prior weakness. Longer-term shareholders would be thankful for the recovery in the share price since it's now virtually flat for the year after the recent bounce.

After such a large jump in price, given close to half the companies in China have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") below 34x, you may consider Reach Machinery as a stock to avoid entirely with its 67.5x P/E ratio. However, the P/E might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

As an illustration, earnings have deteriorated at Reach Machinery over the last year, which is not ideal at all. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders may be quite nervous about the viability of the share price.

View our latest analysis for Reach Machinery

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Reach Machinery's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Is There Enough Growth For Reach Machinery?

Reach Machinery's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the market.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 1.7% decrease to the company's bottom line. This has soured the latest three-year period, which nevertheless managed to deliver a decent 15% overall rise in EPS. Accordingly, while they would have preferred to keep the run going, shareholders would be roughly satisfied with the medium-term rates of earnings growth.

This is in contrast to the rest of the market, which is expected to grow by 38% over the next year, materially higher than the company's recent medium-term annualised growth rates.

In light of this, it's alarming that Reach Machinery's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with recent growth rates.

The Bottom Line On Reach Machinery's P/E

Reach Machinery's P/E is flying high just like its stock has during the last month. It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

Our examination of Reach Machinery revealed its three-year earnings trends aren't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given they look worse than current market expectations. When we see weak earnings with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for Reach Machinery that you need to take into consideration.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking at a few good candidates. So take a peek at this free list of companies with a strong growth track record, trading on a low P/E.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.