What Huachangda Intelligent Equipment Group Co.,Ltd.'s (SZSE:300278) 30% Share Price Gain Is Not Telling You

Those holding Huachangda Intelligent Equipment Group Co.,Ltd. (SZSE:300278) shares would be relieved that the share price has rebounded 30% in the last thirty days, but it needs to keep going to repair the recent damage it has caused to investor portfolios. Unfortunately, the gains of the last month did little to right the losses of the last year with the stock still down 23% over that time.

Following the firm bounce in price, Huachangda Intelligent Equipment GroupLtd's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 58x might make it look like a strong sell right now compared to the market in China, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 30x and even P/E's below 18x are quite common. However, the P/E might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

For instance, Huachangda Intelligent Equipment GroupLtd's receding earnings in recent times would have to be some food for thought. It might be that many expect the company to still outplay most other companies over the coming period, which has kept the P/E from collapsing. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

See our latest analysis for Huachangda Intelligent Equipment GroupLtd

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Does Growth Match The High P/E?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should far outperform the market for P/E ratios like Huachangda Intelligent Equipment GroupLtd's to be considered reasonable.

Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 70%. This has erased any of its gains during the last three years, with practically no change in EPS being achieved in total. Accordingly, shareholders probably wouldn't have been overly satisfied with the unstable medium-term growth rates.

Weighing that recent medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 41% shows it's noticeably less attractive on an annualised basis.

With this information, we find it concerning that Huachangda Intelligent Equipment GroupLtd is trading at a P/E higher than the market. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with recent growth rates.

The Final Word

Huachangda Intelligent Equipment GroupLtd's P/E is flying high just like its stock has during the last month. Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

Our examination of Huachangda Intelligent Equipment GroupLtd revealed its three-year earnings trends aren't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given they look worse than current market expectations. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as this earnings performance isn't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Huachangda Intelligent Equipment GroupLtd you should know about.

If you're unsure about the strength of Huachangda Intelligent Equipment GroupLtd's business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.