Monalisa Group CO.,Ltd Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

Monalisa Group CO.,Ltd (SZSE:002918) just released its latest full-year report and things are not looking great. It looks like quite a negative result overall, with both revenues and earnings falling well short of analyst predictions. Revenues of CN¥5.9b missed by 11%, and statutory earnings per share of CN¥0.67 fell short of forecasts by 48%. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Monalisa GroupLtd

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Monalisa GroupLtd from eight analysts is for revenues of CN¥7.08b in 2024. If met, it would imply a meaningful 20% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to surge 132% to CN¥1.51. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥7.71b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.62 in 2024. It's pretty clear that pessimism has reared its head after the latest results, leading to a weaker revenue outlook and a small dip in earnings per share estimates.

It'll come as no surprise then, to learn that the analysts have cut their price target 13% to CN¥19.04. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Monalisa GroupLtd, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CN¥24.00 and the most bearish at CN¥12.12 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Monalisa GroupLtd's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Monalisa GroupLtd's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 20% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 15% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 15% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Monalisa GroupLtd is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Monalisa GroupLtd going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 1 warning sign for Monalisa GroupLtd that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.