We Think China Railway Construction Heavy Industry (SHSE:688425) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt

David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the permanent loss of capital.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. We note that China Railway Construction Heavy Industry Corporation Limited (SHSE:688425) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?

When Is Debt A Problem?

Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.

View our latest analysis for China Railway Construction Heavy Industry

What Is China Railway Construction Heavy Industry's Net Debt?

You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of September 2024 China Railway Construction Heavy Industry had CN¥2.65b of debt, an increase on CN¥2.07b, over one year. However, it also had CN¥1.81b in cash, and so its net debt is CN¥835.0m.

A Look At China Railway Construction Heavy Industry's Liabilities

According to the last reported balance sheet, China Railway Construction Heavy Industry had liabilities of CN¥9.38b due within 12 months, and liabilities of CN¥1.63b due beyond 12 months. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥1.81b and CN¥10.0b worth of receivables due within a year. So it actually has CN¥815.1m more liquid assets than total liabilities.

This short term liquidity is a sign that China Railway Construction Heavy Industry could probably pay off its debt with ease, as its balance sheet is far from stretched.

We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).

China Railway Construction Heavy Industry has net debt of just 0.41 times EBITDA, suggesting it could ramp leverage without breaking a sweat. And remarkably, despite having net debt, it actually received more in interest over the last twelve months than it had to pay. So it's fair to say it can handle debt like a hotshot teppanyaki chef handles cooking. But the bad news is that China Railway Construction Heavy Industry has seen its EBIT plunge 19% in the last twelve months. We think hat kind of performance, if repeated frequently, could well lead to difficulties for the stock. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since China Railway Construction Heavy Industry will need earnings to service that debt. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.

Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Over the last three years, China Railway Construction Heavy Industry recorded negative free cash flow, in total. Debt is far more risky for companies with unreliable free cash flow, so shareholders should be hoping that the past expenditure will produce free cash flow in the future.

Our View

While China Railway Construction Heavy Industry's EBIT growth rate has us nervous. To wit both its interest cover and net debt to EBITDA were encouraging signs. Looking at all the angles mentioned above, it does seem to us that China Railway Construction Heavy Industry is a somewhat risky investment as a result of its debt. Not all risk is bad, as it can boost share price returns if it pays off, but this debt risk is worth keeping in mind. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for China Railway Construction Heavy Industry you should be aware of, and 1 of them is potentially serious.

If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.