AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Company Limited Recorded A 17% Miss On Revenue: Analysts Are Revisiting Their Models

AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Company Limited (SHSE:600760) just released its latest full-year report and things are not looking great. It looks like a weak result overall, with both revenues and earnings falling well short of analyst predictions. Revenues of CN¥43b missed by 17%, and statutory earnings per share of CN¥1.23 fell short of forecasts by 9.0%. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for AVIC Shenyang Aircraft from eight analysts is for revenues of CN¥47.6b in 2025. If met, it would imply a notable 11% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to accumulate 9.1% to CN¥1.34. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥60.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.66 in 2025. It looks like sentiment has declined substantially in the aftermath of these results, with a large cut to revenue estimates and a substantial drop in earnings per share numbers as well.

View our latest analysis for AVIC Shenyang Aircraft

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the CN¥56.30 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic AVIC Shenyang Aircraft analyst has a price target of CN¥57.60 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CN¥55.00. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of AVIC Shenyang Aircraft'shistorical trends, as the 11% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 is roughly in line with the 13% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 25% per year. So it's pretty clear that AVIC Shenyang Aircraft is expected to grow slower than similar companies in the same industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for AVIC Shenyang Aircraft. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at CN¥56.30, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on AVIC Shenyang Aircraft. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for AVIC Shenyang Aircraft going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with AVIC Shenyang Aircraft (including 1 which makes us a bit uncomfortable) .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.