A Look At The Fair Value Of Enel Chile S.A. (SNSE:ENELCHILE)

Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Enel Chile S.A. (SNSE:ENELCHILE) by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.

We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Our analysis indicates that ENELCHILE is potentially overvalued!

What's The Estimated Valuation?

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032
Levered FCF (CLP, Millions)	CL$97.4b	CL$112.6b	CL$125.7b	CL$138.9b	CL$152.5b	CL$166.5b	CL$181.1b	CL$196.5b	CL$212.9b	CL$230.4b
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x1	Analyst x1	Est @ 11.66%	Est @ 10.53%	Est @ 9.74%	Est @ 9.18%	Est @ 8.8%	Est @ 8.52%	Est @ 8.33%	Est @ 8.2%
Present Value (CLP, Millions) Discounted @ 13%	CL$86.1k	CL$88.0k	CL$86.8k	CL$84.9k	CL$82.3k	CL$79.5k	CL$76.4k	CL$73.3k	CL$70.2k	CL$67.2k

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CL$795b

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 7.9%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 13%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₂ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CL$230b× (1 + 7.9%) ÷ (13%– 7.9%) = CL$4.8t

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= CL$4.8t÷ ( 1 + 13%)¹⁰= CL$1.4t

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is CL$2.2t. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of CL$31.6, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

The Assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Enel Chile as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 13%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.959. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Looking Ahead:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For Enel Chile, there are three important elements you should look at:

1. Risks: For instance, we've identified 4 warning signs for Enel Chile (1 makes us a bit uncomfortable) you should be aware of.
2. Future Earnings: How does ENELCHILE's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the SNSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.