Revenue Miss: Kuehne + Nagel International AG Fell 11% Short Of Analyst Revenue Estimates And Analysts Have Been Revising Their Models

Last week, you might have seen that Kuehne + Nagel International AG (VTX:KNIN) released its first-quarter result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 5.0% to CHF239 in the past week. Revenues were CHF5.5b, 11% below analyst expectations, although losses didn't appear to worsen significantly, with a per-share statutory loss of CHF2.30 being in line with what the analysts forecast. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Kuehne + Nagel International after the latest results.

See our latest analysis for Kuehne + Nagel International

After the latest results, the twelve analysts covering Kuehne + Nagel International are now predicting revenues of CHF23.3b in 2024. If met, this would reflect a credible 3.2% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be CHF10.54, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CHF23.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of CHF10.46 in 2024. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at CHF242. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Kuehne + Nagel International, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CHF308 and the most bearish at CHF170 per share. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that Kuehne + Nagel International's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 4.3% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 10% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 1.4% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Kuehne + Nagel International's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at CHF242, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Kuehne + Nagel International going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 3 warning signs for Kuehne + Nagel International (2 make us uncomfortable!) that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.