To avoid investing in a business that's in decline, there's a few financial metrics that can provide early indications of aging. More often than not, we'll see a declining return on capital employed (ROCE) and a declining amount of capital employed. Ultimately this means that the company is earning less per dollar invested and on top of that, it's shrinking its base of capital employed. And from a first read, things don't look too good at ams-OSRAM (VTX:AMS), so let's see why.
Return On Capital Employed (ROCE): What Is It?
If you haven't worked with ROCE before, it measures the 'return' (pre-tax profit) a company generates from capital employed in its business. The formula for this calculation on ams-OSRAM is:
Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)
0.048 = €197m ÷ (€6.0b - €2.0b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2025).
Thus, ams-OSRAM has an ROCE of 4.8%. Ultimately, that's a low return and it under-performs the Semiconductor industry average of 16%.
Check out our latest analysis for ams-OSRAM
In the above chart we have measured ams-OSRAM's prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free analyst report for ams-OSRAM .
The Trend Of ROCE
There is reason to be cautious about ams-OSRAM, given the returns are trending downwards. About five years ago, returns on capital were 7.6%, however they're now substantially lower than that as we saw above. Meanwhile, capital employed in the business has stayed roughly the flat over the period. Companies that exhibit these attributes tend to not be shrinking, but they can be mature and facing pressure on their margins from competition. If these trends continue, we wouldn't expect ams-OSRAM to turn into a multi-bagger.
On a side note, ams-OSRAM's current liabilities have increased over the last five years to 33% of total assets, effectively distorting the ROCE to some degree. Without this increase, it's likely that ROCE would be even lower than 4.8%. Keep an eye on this ratio, because the business could encounter some new risks if this metric gets too high.
The Bottom Line
In the end, the trend of lower returns on the same amount of capital isn't typically an indication that we're looking at a growth stock. Unsurprisingly then, the stock has dived 91% over the last five years, so investors are recognizing these changes and don't like the company's prospects. That being the case, unless the underlying trends revert to a more positive trajectory, we'd consider looking elsewhere.
If you'd like to know about the risks facing ams-OSRAM, we've discovered 1 warning sign that you should be aware of.
While ams-OSRAM may not currently earn the highest returns, we've compiled a list of companies that currently earn more than 25% return on equity. Check out this free list here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.