Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. As with many other companies Peach Property Group AG (VTX:PEAN) makes use of debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
When Is Debt A Problem?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
View our latest analysis for Peach Property Group
How Much Debt Does Peach Property Group Carry?
The chart below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Peach Property Group had €1.44b in debt in December 2023; about the same as the year before. And it doesn't have much cash, so its net debt is about the same.
A Look At Peach Property Group's Liabilities
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Peach Property Group had liabilities of €108.9m due within 12 months and liabilities of €1.49b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of €21.6m and €41.7m worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities total €1.53b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
This deficit casts a shadow over the €259.1m company, like a colossus towering over mere mortals. So we definitely think shareholders need to watch this one closely. After all, Peach Property Group would likely require a major re-capitalisation if it had to pay its creditors today.
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
Peach Property Group shareholders face the double whammy of a high net debt to EBITDA ratio (27.4), and fairly weak interest coverage, since EBIT is just 1.2 times the interest expense. This means we'd consider it to have a heavy debt load. Investors should also be troubled by the fact that Peach Property Group saw its EBIT drop by 11% over the last twelve months. If that's the way things keep going handling the debt load will be like delivering hot coffees on a pogo stick. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Peach Property Group can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Considering the last three years, Peach Property Group actually recorded a cash outflow, overall. Debt is far more risky for companies with unreliable free cash flow, so shareholders should be hoping that the past expenditure will produce free cash flow in the future.
Our View
To be frank both Peach Property Group's interest cover and its track record of staying on top of its total liabilities make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. And even its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow fails to inspire much confidence. We think the chances that Peach Property Group has too much debt a very significant. To us, that makes the stock rather risky, like walking through a dog park with your eyes closed. But some investors may feel differently. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Be aware that Peach Property Group is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 2 of those shouldn't be ignored...
When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About SWX:PEAN
Peach Property Group
Engages in investment and development of residential real estate properties in Germany and Switzerland.
Reasonable growth potential and fair value.