Analyst Estimates: Here's What Brokers Think Of UBS Group AG (VTX:UBSG) After Its Full-Year Report

It's been a good week for UBS Group AG (VTX:UBSG) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest full-year results, and the shares gained 3.5% to CHF29.06. UBS Group reported in line with analyst predictions, delivering revenues of US$48b and statutory earnings per share of US$1.53, suggesting the business is executing well and in line with its plan. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

See our latest analysis for UBS Group

Taking into account the latest results, UBS Group's 13 analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be US$48.0b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to jump 23% to US$1.96. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$47.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.98 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of CHF31.94, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on UBS Group, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CHF44.50 and the most bearish at CHF21.00 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 0.1% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 8.9% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 5.6% per year. It's pretty clear that UBS Group's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that UBS Group's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at CHF31.94, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple UBS Group analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 3 warning signs for UBS Group you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.