Leonteq AG Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on Leonteq AG (VTX:LEON), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its annual results last week. Results showed a clear earnings miss, with CHF239m revenue coming in 3.6% lower than what the analystsexpected. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of CHF0.32 missed the mark badly, arriving some 26% below what was expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for Leonteq

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Leonteq from dual analysts is for revenues of CHF258.0m in 2025. If met, it would imply a decent 8.2% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to leap 467% to CHF1.88. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CHF288.8m and earnings per share (EPS) of CHF2.57 in 2025. It looks like sentiment has declined substantially in the aftermath of these results, with a real cut to revenue estimates and a large cut to earnings per share numbers as well.

It'll come as no surprise then, to learn that the analysts have cut their price target 19% to CHF17.00.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. One thing stands out from these estimates, which is that Leonteq is forecast to grow faster in the future than it has in the past, with revenues expected to display 8.2% annualised growth until the end of 2025. If achieved, this would be a much better result than the 0.008% annual decline over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 5.4% annually. Not only are Leonteq's revenues expected to improve, it seems that the analysts are also expecting it to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Leonteq. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Leonteq. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At least one analyst has provided forecasts out to 2027, which can be seen for free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 4 warning signs we've spotted with Leonteq (including 2 which don't sit too well with us) .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.