Stock Analysis

Is There An Opportunity With Schindler Holding AG's (VTX:SCHN) 27% Undervaluation?

SWX:SCHN
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Key Insights

  • Schindler Holding's estimated fair value is CHF320 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
  • Current share price of CHF233 suggests Schindler Holding is potentially 27% undervalued
  • The CHF241 analyst price target for SCHN is 25% less than our estimate of fair value

Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Schindler Holding AG (VTX:SCHN) as an investment opportunity by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!

Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.

See our latest analysis for Schindler Holding

The Method

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034
Levered FCF (CHF, Millions) CHF1.13b CHF1.19b CHF1.26b CHF1.34b CHF1.38b CHF1.42b CHF1.45b CHF1.47b CHF1.48b CHF1.50b
Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x8 Analyst x8 Analyst x5 Analyst x4 Est @ 3.66% Est @ 2.64% Est @ 1.92% Est @ 1.42% Est @ 1.07% Est @ 0.82%
Present Value (CHF, Millions) Discounted @ 4.4% CHF1.1k CHF1.1k CHF1.1k CHF1.1k CHF1.1k CHF1.1k CHF1.1k CHF1.0k CHF1.0k CHF975

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CHF11b

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (0.3%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 4.4%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CHF1.5b× (1 + 0.3%) ÷ (4.4%– 0.3%) = CHF36b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CHF36b÷ ( 1 + 4.4%)10= CHF24b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is CHF34b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of CHF233, the company appears a touch undervalued at a 27% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

dcf
SWX:SCHN Discounted Cash Flow September 4th 2024

Important Assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Schindler Holding as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 4.4%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.001. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Schindler Holding

Strength
  • Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.
  • Debt is not viewed as a risk.
  • Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows.
Weakness
  • Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Machinery market.
Opportunity
  • Annual earnings are forecast to grow for the next 3 years.
  • Trading below our estimate of fair value by more than 20%.
Threat
  • Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the Swiss market.

Looking Ahead:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. Why is the intrinsic value higher than the current share price? For Schindler Holding, we've put together three further items you should assess:

  1. Financial Health: Does SCHN have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
  2. Future Earnings: How does SCHN's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
  3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Swiss stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.