The Phoenix Mecano AG (VTX:PMN) Interim Results Are Out And Analysts Have Published New Forecasts

Phoenix Mecano AG (VTX:PMN) came out with its half-year results last week, and we wanted to see how the business is performing and what industry forecasters think of the company following this report. Results were roughly in line with estimates, with revenues of €382m and statutory earnings per share of €47.11. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Phoenix Mecano

Taking into account the latest results, Phoenix Mecano's three analysts currently expect revenues in 2024 to be €769.7m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to reduce 7.4% to €41.19 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €772.6m and earnings per share (EPS) of €42.47 in 2024. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at CHF461, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Phoenix Mecano, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CHF470 and the most bearish at CHF451 per share. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Phoenix Mecano's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 2.1% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 4.3% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 5.6% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Phoenix Mecano is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at CHF461, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Phoenix Mecano going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Phoenix Mecano you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.