The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. As with many other companies Meier Tobler Group AG (VTX:MTG) makes use of debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
View our latest analysis for Meier Tobler Group
What Is Meier Tobler Group's Net Debt?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Meier Tobler Group had debt of CHF71.3m at the end of June 2020, a reduction from CHF112.4m over a year. On the flip side, it has CHF38.7m in cash leading to net debt of about CHF32.7m.
How Healthy Is Meier Tobler Group's Balance Sheet?
The latest balance sheet data shows that Meier Tobler Group had liabilities of CHF150.5m due within a year, and liabilities of CHF74.3m falling due after that. Offsetting this, it had CHF38.7m in cash and CHF59.3m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities total CHF126.8m more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
This is a mountain of leverage relative to its market capitalization of CHF141.6m. This suggests shareholders would be heavily diluted if the company needed to shore up its balance sheet in a hurry.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
Even though Meier Tobler Group's debt is only 1.6, its interest cover is really very low at 1.8. In large part that's it has so much depreciation and amortisation. These charges may be non-cash, so they could be excluded when it comes to paying down debt. But the accounting charges are there for a reason -- some assets are seen to be losing value. Either way there's no doubt the stock is using meaningful leverage. Importantly, Meier Tobler Group's EBIT fell a jaw-dropping 45% in the last twelve months. If that earnings trend continues then paying off its debt will be about as easy as herding cats on to a roller coaster. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Meier Tobler Group's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. Over the last three years, Meier Tobler Group actually produced more free cash flow than EBIT. That sort of strong cash generation warms our hearts like a puppy in a bumblebee suit.
Our View
To be frank both Meier Tobler Group's interest cover and its track record of (not) growing its EBIT make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. But at least it's pretty decent at converting EBIT to free cash flow; that's encouraging. Looking at the balance sheet and taking into account all these factors, we do believe that debt is making Meier Tobler Group stock a bit risky. That's not necessarily a bad thing, but we'd generally feel more comfortable with less leverage. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Be aware that Meier Tobler Group is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those is a bit unpleasant...
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
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About SWX:MTG
Meier Tobler Group
Operates as a trading and services company in heat generation and air conditioning systems.
Flawless balance sheet, undervalued and pays a dividend.