Stock Analysis

TransAlta (TSE:TA) pulls back 4.4% this week, but still delivers shareholders decent 12% CAGR over 5 years

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It hasn't been the best quarter for TransAlta Corporation (TSE:TA) shareholders, since the share price has fallen 17% in that time. Looking further back, the stock has generated good profits over five years. It has returned a market beating 64% in that time.

While the stock has fallen 4.4% this week, it's worth focusing on the longer term and seeing if the stocks historical returns have been driven by the underlying fundamentals.

Before we look at the performance, you might like to know that our analysis indicates that TA is potentially undervalued!

TransAlta isn't currently profitable, so most analysts would look to revenue growth to get an idea of how fast the underlying business is growing. Shareholders of unprofitable companies usually expect strong revenue growth. Some companies are willing to postpone profitability to grow revenue faster, but in that case one does expect good top-line growth.

For the last half decade, TransAlta can boast revenue growth at a rate of 2.3% per year. That's not a very high growth rate considering the bottom line. The modest growth is probably broadly reflected in the share price, which is up 10%, per year over 5 years. We'd be looking for the underlying business to grow revenue a bit faster.

You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

TSX:TA Earnings and Revenue Growth October 1st 2022

If you are thinking of buying or selling TransAlta stock, you should check out this FREE detailed report on its balance sheet.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for TransAlta the TSR over the last 5 years was 80%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

While the broader market lost about 3.8% in the twelve months, TransAlta shareholders did even worse, losing 6.9% (even including dividends). However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there's a good opportunity. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 12% per year over half a decade. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. If you would like to research TransAlta in more detail then you might want to take a look at whether insiders have been buying or selling shares in the company.

For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on CA exchanges.

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Find out whether TransAlta is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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