Some Shareholders Feeling Restless Over TFI International Inc.'s (TSE:TFII) P/E Ratio

With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 21.8x TFI International Inc. (TSE:TFII) may be sending very bearish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in Canada have P/E ratios under 12x and even P/E's lower than 5x are not unusual. However, the P/E might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

TFI International has been struggling lately as its earnings have declined faster than most other companies. It might be that many expect the dismal earnings performance to recover substantially, which has kept the P/E from collapsing. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

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Does Growth Match The High P/E?

TFI International's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the market.

Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 32%. Even so, admirably EPS has lifted 117% in aggregate from three years ago, notwithstanding the last 12 months. So we can start by confirming that the company has generally done a very good job of growing earnings over that time, even though it had some hiccups along the way.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the analysts covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 13% over the next year. Meanwhile, the rest of the market is forecast to expand by 12%, which is not materially different.

With this information, we find it interesting that TFI International is trading at a high P/E compared to the market. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly average growth expectations and are willing to pay up for exposure to the stock. Although, additional gains will be difficult to achieve as this level of earnings growth is likely to weigh down the share price eventually.

What We Can Learn From TFI International's P/E?

While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.

Our examination of TFI International's analyst forecasts revealed that its market-matching earnings outlook isn't impacting its high P/E as much as we would have predicted. Right now we are uncomfortable with the relatively high share price as the predicted future earnings aren't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. This places shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.

Before you take the next step, you should know about the 1 warning sign for TFI International that we have uncovered.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on TFI International, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.