Canadian National Railway Company Beat Analyst Estimates: See What The Consensus Is Forecasting For This Year

As you might know, Canadian National Railway Company (TSE:CNR) recently reported its full-year numbers. Revenues were CA$17b, approximately in line with expectations, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) performed substantially better. EPS of CA$8.53 were also better than expected, beating analyst predictions by 18%. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for Canadian National Railway

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Canadian National Railway from 28 analysts is for revenues of CA$17.8b in 2024. If met, it would imply an okay 5.6% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to reduce 8.4% to CA$8.01 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CA$17.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of CA$7.99 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at CA$175. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Canadian National Railway at CA$210 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CA$152. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Canadian National Railway shareholders.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting Canadian National Railway's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 5.6% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 3.8% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to see revenue growth of 7.1% annually. It seems obvious that, while the future growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, Canadian National Railway is expected to grow slower than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Canadian National Railway's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Canadian National Railway analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Canadian National Railway , and understanding it should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.