Stock Analysis

Cargojet (TSE:CJT) Takes On Some Risk With Its Use Of Debt

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TSX:CJT
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Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. Importantly, Cargojet Inc. (TSE:CJT) does carry debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.

Why Does Debt Bring Risk?

Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

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What Is Cargojet's Net Debt?

The chart below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Cargojet had CA$307.8m in debt in March 2022; about the same as the year before. However, because it has a cash reserve of CA$52.8m, its net debt is less, at about CA$255.0m.

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TSX:CJT Debt to Equity History July 20th 2022

A Look At Cargojet's Liabilities

We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Cargojet had liabilities of CA$109.1m falling due within a year, and liabilities of CA$920.3m due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CA$52.8m as well as receivables valued at CA$70.7m due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by CA$905.9m.

This deficit isn't so bad because Cargojet is worth CA$2.41b, and thus could probably raise enough capital to shore up its balance sheet, if the need arose. However, it is still worthwhile taking a close look at its ability to pay off debt.

We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

Looking at its net debt to EBITDA of 0.92 and interest cover of 6.3 times, it seems to us that Cargojet is probably using debt in a pretty reasonable way. But the interest payments are certainly sufficient to have us thinking about how affordable its debt is. And we also note warmly that Cargojet grew its EBIT by 10% last year, making its debt load easier to handle. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Cargojet can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. In the last three years, Cargojet basically broke even on a free cash flow basis. While many companies do operate at break-even, we prefer see substantial free cash flow, especially if a it already has dead.

Our View

Cargojet's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow was a real negative on this analysis, although the other factors we considered cast it in a significantly better light. But on the bright side, its ability to handle its debt, based on its EBITDA, isn't too shabby at all. Looking at all the angles mentioned above, it does seem to us that Cargojet is a somewhat risky investment as a result of its debt. Not all risk is bad, as it can boost share price returns if it pays off, but this debt risk is worth keeping in mind. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. To that end, you should be aware of the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Cargojet .

Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.

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