There's No Escaping Air Canada's (TSE:AC) Muted Earnings Despite A 28% Share Price Rise

Air Canada (TSE:AC) shareholders are no doubt pleased to see that the share price has bounced 28% in the last month, although it is still struggling to make up recently lost ground. But the gains over the last month weren't enough to make shareholders whole, as the share price is still down 6.7% in the last twelve months.

Even after such a large jump in price, Air Canada's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 3.3x might still make it look like a strong buy right now compared to the market in Canada, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios above 15x and even P/E's above 29x are quite common. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly reduced P/E.

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Air Canada hasn't been tracking well recently as its declining earnings compare poorly to other companies, which have seen some growth on average. The P/E is probably low because investors think this poor earnings performance isn't going to get any better. If you still like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's out of favour.

See our latest analysis for Air Canada

Keen to find out how analysts think Air Canada's future stacks up against the industry? In that case, our free report is a great place to start.

Is There Any Growth For Air Canada?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as depressed as Air Canada's is when the company's growth is on track to lag the market decidedly.

If we review the last year of earnings, dishearteningly the company's profits fell to the tune of 20%. At least EPS has managed not to go completely backwards from three years ago in aggregate, thanks to the earlier period of growth. So it appears to us that the company has had a mixed result in terms of growing earnings over that time.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the analysts covering the company suggest earnings growth is heading into negative territory, declining 16% per annum over the next three years. That's not great when the rest of the market is expected to grow by 10% per year.

In light of this, it's understandable that Air Canada's P/E would sit below the majority of other companies. However, shrinking earnings are unlikely to lead to a stable P/E over the longer term. There's potential for the P/E to fall to even lower levels if the company doesn't improve its profitability.

The Key Takeaway

Even after such a strong price move, Air Canada's P/E still trails the rest of the market significantly. Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

As we suspected, our examination of Air Canada's analyst forecasts revealed that its outlook for shrinking earnings is contributing to its low P/E. At this stage investors feel the potential for an improvement in earnings isn't great enough to justify a higher P/E ratio. Unless these conditions improve, they will continue to form a barrier for the share price around these levels.

Don't forget that there may be other risks. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Air Canada (1 is concerning) you should be aware of.

If P/E ratios interest you, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.