Dollarama Inc.

TSX:DOL Stock Report

Market Cap: CA$38.7b

Dollarama Valuation

Is DOL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of DOL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: DOL (CA$138.51) is trading above our estimate of fair value (CA$59.24)

Significantly Below Fair Value: DOL is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for DOL?

Key metric: As DOL is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for DOL. This is calculated by dividing DOL's market cap by their current earnings.
What is DOL's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio35.2x
EarningsCA$1.10b
Market CapCA$38.72b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does DOL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for DOL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average34.8x
CTC.A Canadian Tire Corporation
13.2x3.8%CA$8.7b
ATZ Aritzia
70.6x59.7%CA$7.2b
EBAY eBay
15.3x2.2%US$31.1b
CPNG Coupang
40x30.8%US$41.3b
DOL Dollarama
35.2x9.3%CA$38.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: DOL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (35.2x) compared to the peer average (34.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does DOL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the North American Multiline Retail Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
DOL 35.2xIndustry Avg. 22.1xNo. of Companies3PE01224364860+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: DOL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (35.2x) compared to the Global Multiline Retail industry average (22.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is DOL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

DOL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio35.2x
Fair PE Ratio26.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: DOL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (35.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst DOL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCA$138.51
CA$144.92
+4.6%
9.5%CA$160.00CA$106.00n/a13
Dec ’25CA$145.84
CA$141.75
-2.8%
9.5%CA$160.00CA$106.00n/a12
Nov ’25CA$146.49
CA$142.45
-2.8%
4.4%CA$154.00CA$130.00n/a11
Oct ’25CA$136.66
CA$142.09
+4.0%
4.3%CA$154.00CA$130.00n/a11
Sep ’25CA$136.50
CA$134.91
-1.2%
6.0%CA$150.00CA$125.00n/a11
Aug ’25CA$129.96
CA$130.73
+0.6%
3.6%CA$138.00CA$125.00n/a11
Jul ’25CA$124.91
CA$130.27
+4.3%
3.3%CA$138.00CA$125.00n/a11
Jun ’25CA$129.00
CA$118.09
-8.5%
6.2%CA$130.00CA$105.00n/a11
May ’25CA$115.17
CA$115.75
+0.5%
4.8%CA$125.00CA$105.00n/a12
Apr ’25CA$102.25
CA$104.83
+2.5%
5.7%CA$118.00CA$94.00n/a12
Mar ’25CA$104.26
CA$103.92
-0.3%
4.9%CA$114.00CA$94.00n/a12
Feb ’25CA$100.22
CA$103.92
+3.7%
4.9%CA$114.00CA$94.00n/a12
Jan ’25CA$95.49
CA$104.08
+9.0%
5.1%CA$114.00CA$94.00n/a12
Dec ’24CA$99.42
CA$102.13
+2.7%
4.8%CA$113.00CA$94.00CA$145.8412
Nov ’24CA$95.91
CA$101.46
+5.8%
3.8%CA$105.00CA$94.00CA$146.4912
Oct ’24CA$93.58
CA$101.46
+8.4%
3.8%CA$105.00CA$94.00CA$136.6612
Sep ’24CA$88.57
CA$92.04
+3.9%
5.4%CA$101.00CA$84.00CA$136.5013
Aug ’24CA$85.85
CA$91.88
+7.0%
5.3%CA$101.00CA$84.00CA$129.9613
Jul ’24CA$89.72
CA$91.88
+2.4%
5.3%CA$101.00CA$84.00CA$124.9113
Jun ’24CA$82.32
CA$91.04
+10.6%
5.3%CA$98.00CA$82.00CA$129.0013
May ’24CA$85.30
CA$90.54
+6.1%
4.8%CA$95.00CA$82.00CA$115.1713
Apr ’24CA$80.77
CA$90.54
+12.1%
4.8%CA$95.00CA$82.00CA$102.2513
Mar ’24CA$77.97
CA$89.86
+15.2%
5.1%CA$95.00CA$82.00CA$104.2614
Feb ’24CA$79.90
CA$89.86
+12.5%
5.1%CA$95.00CA$82.00CA$100.2214
Jan ’24CA$79.19
CA$89.86
+13.5%
5.1%CA$95.00CA$82.00CA$95.4914
Dec ’23CA$82.85
CA$87.35
+5.4%
5.9%CA$95.00CA$78.00CA$99.4213

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/22 01:53
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings2024/10/27
Annual Earnings2024/01/28

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Dollarama Inc. is covered by 27 analysts. 13 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Will ChienAccountability Research Corporation
James DurranBarclays
Tamy ChenBMO Capital Markets Equity Research