Dollarama Inc.

TSX:DOL Stock Report

Market Cap: CA$41.7b

Dollarama Valuation

Is DOL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of DOL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: DOL (CA$143.91) is trading above our estimate of fair value (CA$75.27)

Significantly Below Fair Value: DOL is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for DOL?

Key metric: As DOL is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for DOL. This is calculated by dividing DOL's market cap by their current earnings.
What is DOL's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio37.2x
EarningsCA$1.09b
Market CapCA$41.73b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does DOL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for DOL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average20.3x
CTC.A Canadian Tire Corporation
13x3.8%CA$8.7b
EBAY eBay
14.4x2.3%US$29.3b
CPNG Coupang
41.8x30.1%US$43.5b
NPN Naspers
12x17.2%R676.7b
DOL Dollarama
37.2x9.8%CA$41.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: DOL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (37.2x) compared to the peer average (20.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does DOL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the North American Multiline Retail Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
DOL 37.2xIndustry Avg. 19.9xNo. of Companies3PE01020304050+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: DOL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (37.2x) compared to the Global Multiline Retail industry average (19.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is DOL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

DOL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio37.2x
Fair PE Ratio27.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: DOL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (37.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (27.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst DOL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCA$143.91
CA$143.00
-0.6%
4.6%CA$154.00CA$130.00n/a11
Nov ’25CA$146.49
CA$142.45
-2.8%
4.4%CA$154.00CA$130.00n/a11
Oct ’25CA$136.66
CA$142.09
+4.0%
4.3%CA$154.00CA$130.00n/a11
Sep ’25CA$136.50
CA$134.91
-1.2%
6.0%CA$150.00CA$125.00n/a11
Aug ’25CA$129.96
CA$130.73
+0.6%
3.6%CA$138.00CA$125.00n/a11
Jul ’25CA$124.91
CA$130.27
+4.3%
3.3%CA$138.00CA$125.00n/a11
Jun ’25CA$129.00
CA$118.09
-8.5%
6.2%CA$130.00CA$105.00n/a11
May ’25CA$115.17
CA$115.75
+0.5%
4.8%CA$125.00CA$105.00n/a12
Apr ’25CA$102.25
CA$104.83
+2.5%
5.7%CA$118.00CA$94.00n/a12
Mar ’25CA$104.26
CA$103.92
-0.3%
4.9%CA$114.00CA$94.00n/a12
Feb ’25CA$100.22
CA$103.92
+3.7%
4.9%CA$114.00CA$94.00n/a12
Jan ’25CA$95.49
CA$104.08
+9.0%
5.1%CA$114.00CA$94.00n/a12
Dec ’24CA$99.42
CA$102.13
+2.7%
4.8%CA$113.00CA$94.00n/a12
Nov ’24CA$95.91
CA$101.46
+5.8%
3.8%CA$105.00CA$94.00CA$146.4912
Oct ’24CA$93.58
CA$101.46
+8.4%
3.8%CA$105.00CA$94.00CA$136.6612
Sep ’24CA$88.57
CA$92.04
+3.9%
5.4%CA$101.00CA$84.00CA$136.5013
Aug ’24CA$85.85
CA$91.88
+7.0%
5.3%CA$101.00CA$84.00CA$129.9613
Jul ’24CA$89.72
CA$91.88
+2.4%
5.3%CA$101.00CA$84.00CA$124.9113
Jun ’24CA$82.32
CA$91.04
+10.6%
5.3%CA$98.00CA$82.00CA$129.0013
May ’24CA$85.30
CA$90.54
+6.1%
4.8%CA$95.00CA$82.00CA$115.1713
Apr ’24CA$80.77
CA$90.54
+12.1%
4.8%CA$95.00CA$82.00CA$102.2513
Mar ’24CA$77.97
CA$89.86
+15.2%
5.1%CA$95.00CA$82.00CA$104.2614
Feb ’24CA$79.90
CA$89.86
+12.5%
5.1%CA$95.00CA$82.00CA$100.2214
Jan ’24CA$79.19
CA$89.86
+13.5%
5.1%CA$95.00CA$82.00CA$95.4914
Dec ’23CA$82.85
CA$87.35
+5.4%
5.9%CA$95.00CA$78.00CA$99.4213
Nov ’23CA$80.63
CA$87.35
+8.3%
6.0%CA$95.00CA$78.00CA$95.9113

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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