Aritzia Inc.

TSX:ATZ Stock Report

Market Cap: CA$5.1b

Aritzia Valuation

Is ATZ undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ATZ when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: ATZ (CA$45.37) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CA$226.75)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ATZ is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ATZ?

Key metric: As ATZ is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for ATZ. This is calculated by dividing ATZ's market cap by their current earnings.
What is ATZ's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio50.5x
EarningsCA$101.38m
Market CapCA$5.13b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ATZ's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for ATZ vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average33.6x
ROOT Roots
86.2xn/aCA$91.0m
PET Pet Valu Holdings
21.4x18.1%CA$1.9b
LNF Leon's Furniture
14x5.9%CA$1.8b
CTC.A Canadian Tire Corporation
13.1x3.8%CA$8.7b
ATZ Aritzia
50.5x59.7%CA$5.1b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ATZ is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (50.5x) compared to the peer average (33.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ATZ's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the North American Specialty Retail Industry?

5 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
ATZ 50.5xIndustry Avg. 16.6xNo. of Companies11PE01224364860+
5 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ATZ is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (50.5x) compared to the North American Specialty Retail industry average (16.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ATZ's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ATZ PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio50.5x
Fair PE Ratio52.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ATZ is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (50.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (52.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ATZ forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCA$45.37
CA$57.94
+27.7%
6.3%CA$66.00CA$52.50n/a8
Nov ’25CA$45.60
CA$57.94
+27.1%
6.3%CA$66.00CA$52.50n/a8
Oct ’25CA$49.03
CA$51.63
+5.3%
6.3%CA$56.00CA$47.00n/a8
Sep ’25CA$46.10
CA$50.00
+8.5%
4.8%CA$54.00CA$47.00n/a8
Aug ’25CA$44.49
CA$50.00
+12.4%
4.8%CA$54.00CA$47.00n/a8
Jul ’25CA$38.72
CA$44.38
+14.6%
10.3%CA$53.00CA$40.00n/a8
Jun ’25CA$34.05
CA$44.00
+29.2%
10.3%CA$53.00CA$40.00n/a8
May ’25CA$35.34
CA$42.38
+19.9%
9.7%CA$50.00CA$37.00n/a8
Apr ’25CA$37.23
CA$41.38
+11.1%
12.0%CA$50.00CA$34.00n/a8
Mar ’25CA$35.29
CA$38.00
+7.7%
19.4%CA$50.00CA$22.00n/a9
Feb ’25CA$35.10
CA$35.22
+0.3%
14.5%CA$40.00CA$22.00n/a9
Jan ’25CA$27.50
CA$32.78
+19.2%
17.1%CA$40.00CA$20.00n/a9
Dec ’24CA$25.73
CA$32.13
+24.9%
20.2%CA$41.00CA$20.00n/a8
Nov ’24CA$21.02
CA$32.13
+52.8%
20.2%CA$41.00CA$20.00CA$45.608
Oct ’24CA$23.63
CA$32.13
+36.0%
20.2%CA$41.00CA$20.00CA$49.038
Sep ’24CA$24.79
CA$36.25
+46.2%
16.2%CA$46.00CA$27.00CA$46.108
Aug ’24CA$25.30
CA$36.25
+43.3%
16.2%CA$46.00CA$27.00CA$44.498
Jul ’24CA$36.78
CA$50.25
+36.6%
8.5%CA$60.00CA$44.00CA$38.728
Jun ’24CA$35.24
CA$50.14
+42.3%
9.1%CA$60.00CA$44.00CA$34.057
May ’24CA$43.88
CA$61.57
+40.3%
3.1%CA$65.00CA$59.00CA$35.347
Apr ’24CA$43.37
CA$61.57
+42.0%
3.1%CA$65.00CA$59.00CA$37.237
Mar ’24CA$41.43
CA$61.57
+48.6%
3.1%CA$65.00CA$59.00CA$35.297
Feb ’24CA$48.34
CA$61.57
+27.4%
3.1%CA$65.00CA$59.00CA$35.107
Jan ’24CA$47.35
CA$62.14
+31.2%
3.6%CA$67.00CA$60.00CA$27.507
Dec ’23CA$51.42
CA$61.86
+20.3%
3.9%CA$67.00CA$59.00CA$25.737
Nov ’23CA$52.61
CA$61.86
+17.6%
3.9%CA$67.00CA$59.00CA$21.027

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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