Trulieve Cannabis (CNSX:TRUL): Evaluating Valuation Following New Dispensary Launch in Arizona

If you have been weighing what to do with Trulieve Cannabis (CNSX:TRUL), the company's latest move just might catch your attention. Trulieve confirmed the opening of a new dispensary in Bisbee, Arizona, extending its reach even further in a market where it already runs locations in cities like Phoenix, Tempe and Tucson. The continued build-out of Trulieve-branded outlets speaks directly to its retail expansion strategy, making it easier for more Arizonans to buy not only Trulieve mainstays but also products from its partner brands.

This expansion caps a year of meaningful change for the company and its shareholders. While the stock has surged nearly 97% over the past three months, it’s still in the red over the last year and remains well below levels seen three and five years ago. Momentum has improved lately, though, as recent operational progress and stronger net income have started to shift investor attitudes.

With this latest store opening and shifting market sentiment, is there real value left on the table, or has recent optimism already baked future growth into the price?

Most Popular Narrative: 45.9% Undervalued

The most widely followed narrative currently sees Trulieve Cannabis as significantly undervalued, suggesting meaningful upside compared to its estimated fair value. This undervaluation is driven by expectations of regulatory changes, business expansion, and potential margin improvements.

Pending federal policy changes, specifically cannabis rescheduling to Schedule III and progress on SAFER Banking legislation, are expected to substantially lower Trulieve's tax burden (eliminating the punitive 280E provision) and unlock improved access to financing. This would directly increase net margins and cash flow.

Some may assume Trulieve's fair value hinges solely on expansion. In reality, the narrative emphasizes a major earnings transformation and a multiple that competes with industry leaders. To learn about the future profit assumptions analysts are considering, explore the full narrative to see the financial leap the crowd anticipates.

Result: Fair Value of $17.89 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, any delay in regulatory reform or ongoing margin pressure from higher competition could stall Trulieve’s expected turnaround and value growth.

Find out about the key risks to this Trulieve Cannabis narrative.

Another View: Discounted Cash Flow Perspective

Looking at Trulieve Cannabis through our DCF model paints a very different picture. This approach suggests the stock could be trading well below what the company's future cash flows might justify. Which approach reveals the real story?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Stay updated when valuation signals shift by adding Trulieve Cannabis to your watchlist or portfolio. Alternatively, explore our screener to discover other companies that fit your criteria.

Build Your Own Trulieve Cannabis Narrative

If our analysis sparks a different outlook or you prefer your own approach, you can craft your own perspective from the data in just a few minutes. Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Trulieve Cannabis research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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