Stock Analysis

Pan American Silver's (TSE:PAAS) investors will be pleased with their notable 97% return over the last year

TSX:PAAS
Source: Shutterstock

These days it's easy to simply buy an index fund, and your returns should (roughly) match the market. But if you pick the right individual stocks, you could make more than that. To wit, the Pan American Silver Corp. (TSE:PAAS) share price is 94% higher than it was a year ago, much better than the market return of around 12% (not including dividends) in the same period. So that should have shareholders smiling. The longer term returns have not been as good, with the stock price only 10% higher than it was three years ago.

So let's assess the underlying fundamentals over the last 1 year and see if they've moved in lock-step with shareholder returns.

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

During the last year Pan American Silver grew its earnings per share, moving from a loss to a profit.

The company was close to break-even last year, so earnings per share of US$0.31 isn't particularly stand out. But judging by the share price, the market is happy with the maiden profit. Inflection points like this can be a great time to take a closer look at a company.

The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-per-share-growth
TSX:PAAS Earnings Per Share Growth March 25th 2025

We know that Pan American Silver has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? If you're interested, you could check this free report showing consensus revenue forecasts.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of Pan American Silver, it has a TSR of 97% for the last 1 year. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

We're pleased to report that Pan American Silver shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 97% over one year. And that does include the dividend. That's better than the annualised return of 14% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. Given the share price momentum remains strong, it might be worth taking a closer look at the stock, lest you miss an opportunity. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Take risks, for example - Pan American Silver has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

Of course Pan American Silver may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Canadian exchanges.

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Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

About TSX:PAAS

Pan American Silver

Engages in the exploration, mine development, extraction, processing, refining, and reclamation of mines in Canada, Mexico, Peru, Bolivia, Argentina, Chile, and Brazil.

Adequate balance sheet with moderate growth potential.