Orezone Gold Corporation Beat Analyst Estimates: See What The Consensus Is Forecasting For This Year

The first-quarter results for Orezone Gold Corporation (TSE:ORE) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$81m were what the analysts expected, Orezone Gold surprised by delivering a (statutory) profit of US$0.059 per share, an impressive 46% above what was forecast. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Orezone Gold

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Orezone Gold from three analysts is for revenues of US$293.6m in 2023 which, if met, would be a sizeable 135% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to leap 194% to US$0.23. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$267.4m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.19 in 2023. There's been a pretty noticeable increase in sentiment, with the analysts upgrading revenues and making a sizeable expansion in earnings per share in particular.

Althoughthe analysts have upgraded their earnings estimates, there was no change to the consensus price target of CA$2.54, suggesting that the forecast performance does not have a long term impact on the company's valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Orezone Gold analyst has a price target of CA$3.75 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CA$1.85. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's clear from the latest estimates that Orezone Gold's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 212% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2023 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 106% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 12% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Orezone Gold to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Orezone Gold's earnings potential next year. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting revenues to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Orezone Gold going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here..

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with Orezone Gold (at least 1 which shouldn't be ignored) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.