Stock Analysis

Lundin Mining (TSE:LUN) Is Due To Pay A Dividend Of $0.09

TSX:LUN
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Lundin Mining Corporation's (TSE:LUN) investors are due to receive a payment of $0.09 per share on 13th of September. The dividend yield will be 3.6% based on this payment which is still above the industry average.

View our latest analysis for Lundin Mining

Lundin Mining's Earnings Easily Cover The Distributions

We like to see robust dividend yields, but that doesn't matter if the payment isn't sustainable. Before making this announcement, Lundin Mining was earning enough to cover the dividend, but it wasn't generating any free cash flows. No cash flows could definitely make returning cash to shareholders difficult, or at least mean the balance sheet will come under pressure.

EPS is set to grow by 30.4% over the next year. If the dividend continues along recent trends, we estimate the payout ratio could reach 80%, which is on the higher side, but certainly still feasible.

historic-dividend
TSX:LUN Historic Dividend August 28th 2023

Lundin Mining's Dividend Has Lacked Consistency

Even in its relatively short history, the company has reduced the dividend at least once. If the company cuts once, it definitely isn't argument against the possibility of it cutting in the future. Since 2016, the annual payment back then was $0.0882, compared to the most recent full-year payment of $0.265. This works out to be a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 17% a year over that time. It is great to see strong growth in the dividend payments, but cuts are concerning as it may indicate the payout policy is too ambitious.

Dividend Growth May Be Hard To Come By

With a relatively unstable dividend, it's even more important to see if earnings per share is growing. In the last five years, Lundin Mining's earnings per share has shrunk at approximately 5.5% per annum. If earnings continue declining, the company may have to make the difficult choice of reducing the dividend or even stopping it completely - the opposite of dividend growth. It's not all bad news though, as the earnings are predicted to rise over the next 12 months - we would just be a bit cautious until this can turn into a longer term trend.

Lundin Mining's Dividend Doesn't Look Sustainable

Overall, we don't think this company makes a great dividend stock, even though the dividend wasn't cut this year. With cash flows lacking, it is difficult to see how the company can sustain a dividend payment. We would probably look elsewhere for an income investment.

It's important to note that companies having a consistent dividend policy will generate greater investor confidence than those having an erratic one. Still, investors need to consider a host of other factors, apart from dividend payments, when analysing a company. For example, we've picked out 3 warning signs for Lundin Mining that investors should know about before committing capital to this stock. If you are a dividend investor, you might also want to look at our curated list of high yield dividend stocks.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.