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Even though Hudbay Minerals (TSE:HBM) has lost CA$269m market cap in last 7 days, shareholders are still up 354% over 5 years
We think all investors should try to buy and hold high quality multi-year winners. And we've seen some truly amazing gains over the years. Don't believe it? Then look at the Hudbay Minerals Inc. (TSE:HBM) share price. It's 349% higher than it was five years ago. And this is just one example of the epic gains achieved by some long term investors. On the other hand, the stock price has retraced 5.8% in the last week. But note that the broader market is down 0.6% since last week, and this may have impacted Hudbay Minerals' share price.
In light of the stock dropping 5.8% in the past week, we want to investigate the longer term story, and see if fundamentals have been the driver of the company's positive five-year return.
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
During the last half decade, Hudbay Minerals became profitable. Sometimes, the start of profitability is a major inflection point that can signal fast earnings growth to come, which in turn justifies very strong share price gains.
You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
It's probably worth noting we've seen significant insider buying in the last quarter, which we consider a positive. On the other hand, we think the revenue and earnings trends are much more meaningful measures of the business. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on Hudbay Minerals' earnings, revenue and cash flow.
What About Dividends?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for Hudbay Minerals the TSR over the last 5 years was 354%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
A Different Perspective
It's nice to see that Hudbay Minerals shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 16% over the last year. That's including the dividend. Having said that, the five-year TSR of 35% a year, is even better. The pessimistic view would be that be that the stock has its best days behind it, but on the other hand the price might simply be moderating while the business itself continues to execute. If you want to research this stock further, the data on insider buying is an obvious place to start. You can click here to see who has been buying shares - and the price they paid.
Hudbay Minerals is not the only stock insiders are buying. So take a peek at this free list of small cap companies at attractive valuations which insiders have been buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Canadian exchanges.
Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.
Discover if Hudbay Minerals might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.
Access Free AnalysisHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About TSX:HBM
Hudbay Minerals
A diversified mining company, focuses on the exploration, development, operation, and optimization of properties in North and South America.
Excellent balance sheet with moderate growth potential.
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