A Look at Aris Mining (TSX:ARIS) Valuation Following 25% Gold Production Growth and Segovia Expansion Success

Aris Mining (TSX:ARIS) just announced a 25% jump in gold production for the third quarter of 2025 compared to the previous quarter, driven by its newly expanded Segovia mill. Management also reaffirmed their full-year production targets, which signals strong execution for investors.

See our latest analysis for Aris Mining.

Aris Mining’s momentum is evident in the stock’s recent performance, with a share price that has surged 18% over the last month and an impressive 57.6% over 90 days. The latest production update and strong execution appear to be fueling optimism, and the year-to-date share price return of 186% highlights how investor sentiment has shifted. Looking at a longer timeframe, the company’s three-year total shareholder return of 356% signals both operational and market-driven growth.

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With shares close to analysts’ targets after such a strong rally, is Aris Mining still undervalued based on its fundamentals? Or is the market already factoring in the company’s future growth potential and execution?

Most Popular Narrative: 11.7% Undervalued

Compared to Aris Mining's last close at CA$15.05, the most widely followed narrative sees a fair value around CA$17.05. This suggests room for upside as ongoing expansion is factored into forward-looking estimates.

The ongoing expansion at the Segovia operations, with the new second ball mill increasing processing capacity by 50% and a targeted production ramp-up to 300,000 ounces in 2026, is set to drive sustained revenue growth and structurally higher operating margins as fixed costs are leveraged over larger output.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what’s fueling these bold gains? Behind this fair value are dramatic profit margin improvements and ambitious growth forecasts that could transform the company’s earnings power. What numbers are analysts betting on? Dive in to reveal the assumptions that power this valuation.

Result: Fair Value of $17.05 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, a heavy reliance on Colombian operations and volatility in gold prices could quickly change this upbeat outlook if conditions turn less favorable.

Find out about the key risks to this Aris Mining narrative.

Build Your Own Aris Mining Narrative

If you see things differently or want to dig deeper yourself, it’s quick and easy to craft your own perspective using the latest data. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Aris Mining research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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