Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We can see that Maple Leaf Foods Inc. (TSE:MFI) does use debt in its business. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
When Is Debt Dangerous?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
View our latest analysis for Maple Leaf Foods
How Much Debt Does Maple Leaf Foods Carry?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at June 2020 Maple Leaf Foods had debt of CA$740.6m, up from CA$470.3m in one year. However, because it has a cash reserve of CA$111.2m, its net debt is less, at about CA$629.4m.
A Look At Maple Leaf Foods's Liabilities
According to the last reported balance sheet, Maple Leaf Foods had liabilities of CA$535.0m due within 12 months, and liabilities of CA$1.26b due beyond 12 months. On the other hand, it had cash of CA$111.2m and CA$197.5m worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities total CA$1.5b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
While this might seem like a lot, it is not so bad since Maple Leaf Foods has a market capitalization of CA$3.44b, and so it could probably strengthen its balance sheet by raising capital if it needed to. But we definitely want to keep our eyes open to indications that its debt is bringing too much risk.
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
Maple Leaf Foods has a debt to EBITDA ratio of 2.8 and its EBIT covered its interest expense 3.3 times. This suggests that while the debt levels are significant, we'd stop short of calling them problematic. Even worse, Maple Leaf Foods saw its EBIT tank 48% over the last 12 months. If earnings continue to follow that trajectory, paying off that debt load will be harder than convincing us to run a marathon in the rain. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Maple Leaf Foods can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. Looking at the most recent three years, Maple Leaf Foods recorded free cash flow of 45% of its EBIT, which is weaker than we'd expect. That's not great, when it comes to paying down debt.
Our View
We'd go so far as to say Maple Leaf Foods's EBIT growth rate was disappointing. Having said that, its ability to convert EBIT to free cash flow isn't such a worry. Looking at the bigger picture, it seems clear to us that Maple Leaf Foods's use of debt is creating risks for the company. If everything goes well that may pay off but the downside of this debt is a greater risk of permanent losses. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Maple Leaf Foods that you should be aware of.
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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About TSX:MFI
Maple Leaf Foods
Produces food products in Canada, the United States, Japan, China, and internationally.
Established dividend payer with proven track record.
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