We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Vermilion Energy Valuation

Is VET undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for VET?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

VET key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.5x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA2.2x
PEG Ratio-0.05x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does VET's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for VET vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyPEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average4.7x
BTE Baytex Energy
3.1x-31.1%CA$3.3b
POU Paramount Resources
8.2xn/aCA$4.3b
BIR Birchcliff Energy
3.2xn/aCA$2.2b
NVA NuVista Energy
4.1x-3.5%CA$2.4b
VET Vermilion Energy
2.6x-48.9%CA$3.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: VET is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (2.6x) compared to the peer average (4.7x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does VET's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the CA Oil and Gas Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a-4.4%
n/an/an/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: VET is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (2.6x) compared to the Canadian Oil and Gas industry average (5.2x)


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is VET's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

VET PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio2.6x
Fair PE Ratio3.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: VET is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (2.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (3.2x).


Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of VET when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: VET (CA$19.77) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CA$49.39)

Significantly Below Fair Value: VET is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst VET forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCA$19.77
CA$33.07
+67.3%
20.0%CA$52.00CA$25.00n/a14
Jan ’24CA$23.97
CA$39.14
+63.3%
14.4%CA$52.00CA$32.00n/a14
Dec ’23CA$25.84
CA$39.43
+52.6%
13.9%CA$52.00CA$31.00n/a14
Nov ’23CA$32.47
CA$42.14
+29.8%
11.6%CA$52.00CA$35.00n/a14
Oct ’23CA$29.57
CA$42.07
+42.3%
12.0%CA$52.00CA$34.00n/a14
Sep ’23CA$33.73
CA$40.86
+21.1%
15.3%CA$52.00CA$27.00n/a14
Aug ’23CA$33.11
CA$38.29
+15.6%
16.7%CA$52.00CA$24.00n/a14
Jul ’23CA$24.50
CA$37.25
+52.0%
20.4%CA$52.00CA$22.00n/a14
Jun ’23CA$28.71
CA$36.25
+26.3%
22.3%CA$53.00CA$22.00n/a14
May ’23CA$25.03
CA$35.86
+43.3%
27.2%CA$53.00CA$17.00n/a11
Apr ’23CA$27.02
CA$31.13
+15.2%
17.0%CA$37.00CA$17.00n/a12
Mar ’23CA$24.61
CA$23.29
-5.4%
22.4%CA$34.00CA$16.00n/a14
Feb ’23CA$20.56
CA$21.43
+4.2%
24.7%CA$32.00CA$13.00CA$19.7715
Jan ’23CA$15.90
CA$16.93
+6.5%
10.9%CA$20.00CA$13.00CA$23.9715
Dec ’22CA$12.56
CA$16.87
+34.3%
10.7%CA$20.00CA$13.00CA$25.8415
Nov ’22CA$13.79
CA$14.84
+7.6%
15.1%CA$18.00CA$11.00CA$32.4716
Oct ’22CA$12.94
CA$12.97
+0.2%
18.1%CA$18.00CA$8.00CA$29.5716
Sep ’22CA$8.32
CA$12.19
+46.5%
15.7%CA$17.00CA$8.00CA$33.7316
Aug ’22CA$8.97
CA$12.44
+38.7%
13.9%CA$17.00CA$9.00CA$33.1116
Jul ’22CA$10.86
CA$11.75
+8.2%
18.7%CA$17.00CA$8.00CA$24.5016
Jun ’22CA$9.75
CA$10.39
+6.6%
12.3%CA$13.00CA$8.00CA$28.7116
May ’22CA$9.12
CA$10.30
+12.9%
12.4%CA$13.00CA$8.00CA$25.0315
Apr ’22CA$9.47
CA$9.83
+3.8%
21.3%CA$13.00CA$5.00CA$27.0215
Mar ’22CA$7.91
CA$7.80
-1.4%
19.6%CA$11.00CA$5.00CA$24.6115
Feb ’22CA$5.83
CA$7.41
+27.0%
17.6%CA$11.00CA$5.00CA$20.5616

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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