Birchcliff Energy Valuation

Is BIR undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of BIR when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: BIR (CA$5.15) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CA$13.04)

Significantly Below Fair Value: BIR is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for BIR?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

BIR key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.9x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA5.7x
PEG Ration/a

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does BIR's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for BIR vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average16.4x
AAV Advantage Energy
33.1x46.1%CA$1.5b
PXT Parex Resources
3.9x-36.7%CA$1.4b
KEL Kelt Exploration
18.8xn/aCA$1.3b
IPCO International Petroleum
10x-4.1%CA$1.8b
BIR Birchcliff Energy
33.9xn/aCA$1.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: BIR is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (33.9x) compared to the peer average (16.4x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does BIR's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the CA Oil and Gas Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a6.2%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a6.2%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: BIR is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (33.9x) compared to the Canadian Oil and Gas industry average (11x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is BIR's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

BIR PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio33.9x
Fair PE Ration/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate BIR's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst BIR forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCA$5.17
CA$6.56
+26.9%
14.4%CA$8.50CA$5.00n/a12
Nov ’25CA$5.11
CA$6.56
+28.4%
14.4%CA$8.50CA$5.00n/a12
Oct ’25CA$5.78
CA$6.65
+15.0%
14.4%CA$8.50CA$5.00n/a12
Sep ’25CA$5.89
CA$6.77
+15.0%
12.2%CA$8.50CA$5.50n/a12
Aug ’25CA$5.83
CA$6.73
+15.4%
12.6%CA$8.50CA$5.50n/a12
Jul ’25CA$6.01
CA$6.58
+9.5%
13.5%CA$8.50CA$5.00n/a12
Jun ’25CA$6.21
CA$6.33
+1.9%
14.4%CA$8.50CA$5.00n/a13
May ’25CA$5.47
CA$6.33
+15.7%
15.1%CA$8.50CA$5.00n/a13
Apr ’25CA$5.33
CA$6.27
+17.6%
16.2%CA$8.50CA$5.00n/a13
Mar ’25CA$5.54
CA$6.50
+17.3%
22.3%CA$10.00CA$5.00n/a13
Feb ’25CA$4.96
CA$6.71
+35.4%
20.6%CA$10.00CA$5.00n/a14
Jan ’25CA$5.78
CA$9.16
+58.5%
21.6%CA$14.00CA$6.00n/a14
Dec ’24CA$6.59
CA$9.48
+43.9%
18.4%CA$14.00CA$6.50n/a14
Nov ’24CA$7.76
CA$9.68
+24.7%
16.5%CA$14.00CA$7.75CA$5.1114
Oct ’24CA$7.74
CA$9.80
+26.7%
19.5%CA$16.00CA$8.00CA$5.7814
Sep ’24CA$8.45
CA$9.75
+15.4%
19.3%CA$16.00CA$7.50CA$5.8915
Aug ’24CA$7.90
CA$9.67
+22.4%
20.1%CA$16.00CA$7.50CA$5.8315
Jul ’24CA$7.84
CA$9.92
+26.5%
20.7%CA$16.00CA$7.50CA$6.0115
Jun ’24CA$7.56
CA$10.10
+33.6%
20.9%CA$16.00CA$7.50CA$6.2115
May ’24CA$8.05
CA$10.28
+27.7%
19.5%CA$16.00CA$8.00CA$5.4715
Apr ’24CA$7.66
CA$11.27
+47.1%
23.5%CA$18.00CA$8.00CA$5.3315
Mar ’24CA$8.55
CA$12.17
+42.3%
19.2%CA$18.00CA$9.00CA$5.5415
Feb ’24CA$8.36
CA$12.83
+53.5%
22.3%CA$20.00CA$9.00CA$4.9615
Jan ’24CA$9.43
CA$14.41
+52.8%
15.6%CA$20.00CA$11.50CA$5.7814
Dec ’23CA$10.62
CA$14.50
+36.5%
15.6%CA$20.00CA$12.00CA$6.5913
Nov ’23CA$10.54
CA$14.60
+38.5%
14.9%CA$20.00CA$12.25CA$7.7613

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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