Birchcliff Energy Ltd.

TSX:BIR Stock Report

Market Cap: CA$1.4b

Birchcliff Energy Valuation

Is BIR undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of BIR when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: BIR (CA$5.32) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CA$21.03)

Significantly Below Fair Value: BIR is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for BIR?

Key metric: As BIR is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for BIR. This is calculated by dividing BIR's market cap by their current earnings.
What is BIR's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio93.7x
EarningsCA$15.35m
Market CapCA$1.36b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does BIR's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for BIR vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average21x
AAV Advantage Energy
35.1x45.0%CA$1.5b
PXT Parex Resources
3.6x-36.7%CA$1.3b
KEC Kiwetinohk Energy
21.1xn/aCA$1.4b
KEL Kelt Exploration
24.1xn/aCA$1.3b
BIR Birchcliff Energy
93.7xn/aCA$1.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: BIR is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (93.7x) compared to the peer average (21x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does BIR's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the CA Oil and Gas Industry?

7 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
HAM Highwood Asset Management
1.2x-41.1%US$63.43m
ALPS.U Alpine Summit Energy Partners
1xn/aUS$24.02m
KUB.H Carcetti Capital
0.7xn/aUS$5.82m
GCOM Green Shift Commodities
1.2xn/aUS$3.82m
BIR 93.7xIndustry Avg. 10.3xNo. of Companies11PE0612182430+
7 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: BIR is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (93.7x) compared to the Canadian Oil and Gas industry average (10.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is BIR's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

BIR PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio93.7x
Fair PE Ration/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate BIR's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst BIR forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCA$5.32
CA$6.50
+22.2%
15.0%CA$8.50CA$5.00n/a12
Dec ’25CA$5.29
CA$6.58
+24.4%
14.1%CA$8.50CA$5.00n/a12
Nov ’25CA$5.11
CA$6.56
+28.4%
14.4%CA$8.50CA$5.00n/a12
Oct ’25CA$5.78
CA$6.65
+15.0%
14.4%CA$8.50CA$5.00n/a12
Sep ’25CA$5.89
CA$6.77
+15.0%
12.2%CA$8.50CA$5.50n/a12
Aug ’25CA$5.83
CA$6.73
+15.4%
12.6%CA$8.50CA$5.50n/a12
Jul ’25CA$6.01
CA$6.58
+9.5%
13.5%CA$8.50CA$5.00n/a12
Jun ’25CA$6.21
CA$6.33
+1.9%
14.4%CA$8.50CA$5.00n/a13
May ’25CA$5.47
CA$6.33
+15.7%
15.1%CA$8.50CA$5.00n/a13
Apr ’25CA$5.33
CA$6.27
+17.6%
16.2%CA$8.50CA$5.00n/a13
Mar ’25CA$5.54
CA$6.50
+17.3%
22.3%CA$10.00CA$5.00n/a13
Feb ’25CA$4.96
CA$6.71
+35.4%
20.6%CA$10.00CA$5.00n/a14
Jan ’25CA$5.78
CA$9.16
+58.5%
21.6%CA$14.00CA$6.00n/a14
Dec ’24CA$6.59
CA$9.48
+43.9%
18.4%CA$14.00CA$6.50CA$5.2914
Nov ’24CA$7.76
CA$9.68
+24.7%
16.5%CA$14.00CA$7.75CA$5.1114
Oct ’24CA$7.74
CA$9.80
+26.7%
19.5%CA$16.00CA$8.00CA$5.7814
Sep ’24CA$8.45
CA$9.75
+15.4%
19.3%CA$16.00CA$7.50CA$5.8915
Aug ’24CA$7.90
CA$9.67
+22.4%
20.1%CA$16.00CA$7.50CA$5.8315
Jul ’24CA$7.84
CA$9.92
+26.5%
20.7%CA$16.00CA$7.50CA$6.0115
Jun ’24CA$7.56
CA$10.10
+33.6%
20.9%CA$16.00CA$7.50CA$6.2115
May ’24CA$8.05
CA$10.28
+27.7%
19.5%CA$16.00CA$8.00CA$5.4715
Apr ’24CA$7.66
CA$11.27
+47.1%
23.5%CA$18.00CA$8.00CA$5.3315
Mar ’24CA$8.55
CA$12.17
+42.3%
19.2%CA$18.00CA$9.00CA$5.5415
Feb ’24CA$8.36
CA$12.83
+53.5%
22.3%CA$20.00CA$9.00CA$4.9615
Jan ’24CA$9.43
CA$14.41
+52.8%
15.6%CA$20.00CA$11.50CA$5.7814
Dec ’23CA$10.62
CA$14.50
+36.5%
15.6%CA$20.00CA$12.00CA$6.5913

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/30 23:36
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/30 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Birchcliff Energy Ltd. is covered by 27 analysts. 1 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Patrick O'RourkeATB Capital Markets
Randy OllenbergerBMO Capital Markets Equity Research
Michael MuellerCanaccord Genuity