Advantage Energy Valuation

Is AAV undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AAV when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: AAV (CA$9.37) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CA$12.16)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AAV is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AAV?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

AAV key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.6x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA7x
PEG Ratio0.6x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does AAV's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for AAV vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average16.5x
BIR Birchcliff Energy
37.6xn/aCA$1.5b
PXT Parex Resources
3.1x-40.1%CA$1.3b
IPCO International Petroleum
8.8x-3.1%CA$2.1b
CR Crew Energy
16.6xn/aCA$1.1b
AAV Advantage Energy
19.5x30.0%CA$1.5b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: AAV is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.5x) compared to the peer average (16.5x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does AAV's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the CA Oil and Gas Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a6.9%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a6.9%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: AAV is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.5x) compared to the Canadian Oil and Gas industry average (11.8x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AAV's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AAV PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio19.5x
Fair PE Ratio13.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: AAV is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.7x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst AAV forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCA$9.37
CA$13.05
+39.3%
18.7%CA$20.00CA$11.00n/a10
Oct ’25CA$9.63
CA$13.55
+40.7%
17.3%CA$20.00CA$11.00n/a11
Sep ’25CA$9.72
CA$13.95
+43.6%
15.0%CA$20.00CA$12.00n/a11
Aug ’25CA$9.55
CA$13.95
+46.1%
15.0%CA$20.00CA$12.00n/a11
Jul ’25CA$10.38
CA$13.95
+34.4%
14.9%CA$20.00CA$12.00n/a11
Jun ’25CA$11.59
CA$13.46
+16.1%
15.2%CA$19.00CA$11.00n/a12
May ’25CA$10.65
CA$13.46
+26.4%
15.2%CA$19.00CA$11.00n/a12
Apr ’25CA$9.97
CA$13.00
+30.4%
13.4%CA$17.00CA$10.50n/a11
Mar ’25CA$10.23
CA$12.48
+22.0%
14.3%CA$16.00CA$9.75n/a11
Feb ’25CA$8.85
CA$12.48
+41.0%
14.8%CA$16.00CA$9.75n/a12
Jan ’25CA$8.53
CA$12.75
+49.5%
17.9%CA$18.00CA$9.50n/a13
Dec ’24CA$9.24
CA$12.77
+38.2%
17.0%CA$18.00CA$9.50n/a14
Nov ’24CA$10.29
CA$12.70
+23.4%
17.4%CA$18.00CA$9.50n/a14
Oct ’24CA$9.27
CA$12.37
+33.4%
16.3%CA$16.00CA$9.50CA$9.6313
Sep ’24CA$9.86
CA$12.10
+22.7%
16.3%CA$16.00CA$9.50CA$9.7214
Aug ’24CA$9.31
CA$12.10
+29.9%
16.3%CA$16.00CA$9.50CA$9.5514
Jul ’24CA$8.65
CA$11.76
+35.9%
16.6%CA$16.00CA$9.50CA$10.3814
Jun ’24CA$7.23
CA$11.94
+65.1%
16.2%CA$16.00CA$9.00CA$11.5914
May ’24CA$7.38
CA$12.08
+63.7%
15.7%CA$16.00CA$9.50CA$10.6514
Apr ’24CA$7.81
CA$12.94
+65.6%
13.7%CA$17.00CA$10.50CA$9.9714
Mar ’24CA$8.19
CA$13.22
+61.4%
14.6%CA$17.00CA$10.50CA$10.2314
Feb ’24CA$7.98
CA$13.72
+71.9%
11.3%CA$17.00CA$11.85CA$8.8514
Jan ’24CA$9.47
CA$14.60
+54.1%
9.3%CA$17.00CA$12.00CA$8.5313
Dec ’23CA$11.72
CA$14.60
+24.5%
9.3%CA$17.00CA$12.00CA$9.2413
Nov ’23CA$10.49
CA$14.60
+39.1%
9.3%CA$17.00CA$12.00CA$10.2913
Oct ’23CA$9.93
CA$14.71
+48.2%
10.1%CA$17.00CA$12.00CA$9.2713

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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