Advantage Energy Ltd.

TSX:AAV Stock Report

Market Cap: CA$1.9b

Advantage Energy Valuation

Is AAV undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AAV when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
CA$47.32
Fair Value
76.7% undervalued intrinsic discount
12
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: AAV (CA$11.03) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CA$47.32)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AAV is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AAV?

Key metric: As AAV is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for AAV. This is calculated by dividing AAV's market cap by their current revenue.
What is AAV's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio3.2x
SalesCA$571.69m
Market CapCA$1.92b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does AAV's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for AAV vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average3x
BIR Birchcliff Energy
2.8x6.76%CA$1.8b
IPCO International Petroleum
2.1x12.75%CA$2.3b
FRU Freehold Royalties
6.3x-0.78%CA$2.1b
VET Vermilion Energy
0.8x5.23%CA$1.4b
AAV Advantage Energy
3.2x16.16%CA$1.9b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: AAV is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.2x) compared to the peer average (3x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does AAV's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the CA Oil and Gas Industry?

20 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
PKI Parkland
0.2x3.11%US$4.79b
GEI Gibson Energy
0.3x-3.38%US$2.69b
SES SECURE Waste Infrastructure
0.3x-55.36%US$2.47b
FEC Frontera Energy
0.3xn/aUS$329.36m
AAV 3.2xIndustry Avg. 2.0xNo. of Companies20PS01.63.24.86.48+
20 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: AAV is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.2x) compared to the Canadian Oil and Gas industry average (2x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AAV's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AAV PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio3.2x
Fair PS Ratio1.9x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: AAV is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.9x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst AAV forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCA$11.03
CA$13.58
+23.15%
16.66%CA$20.00CA$11.00n/a12
May ’26CA$9.92
CA$13.38
+34.83%
17.81%CA$20.00CA$11.00n/a12
Apr ’26CA$11.02
CA$13.73
+24.57%
17.11%CA$20.00CA$11.00n/a11
Mar ’26CA$10.09
CA$13.73
+36.05%
17.11%CA$20.00CA$11.00n/a11
Feb ’26CA$9.23
CA$13.73
+48.72%
17.11%CA$20.00CA$11.00n/a11
Jan ’26CA$9.86
CA$13.18
+33.69%
18.53%CA$20.00CA$11.00n/a11
Dec ’25CA$9.00
CA$13.23
+46.97%
18.40%CA$20.00CA$11.00n/a11
Nov ’25CA$8.75
CA$13.14
+50.13%
18.72%CA$20.00CA$11.00n/a11
Oct ’25CA$9.63
CA$13.55
+40.66%
17.27%CA$20.00CA$11.00n/a11
Sep ’25CA$9.72
CA$13.95
+43.57%
15.00%CA$20.00CA$12.00n/a11
Aug ’25CA$9.55
CA$13.95
+46.12%
15.00%CA$20.00CA$12.00n/a11
Jul ’25CA$10.38
CA$13.95
+34.44%
14.93%CA$20.00CA$12.00n/a11
Jun ’25CA$11.59
CA$13.46
+16.12%
15.20%CA$19.00CA$11.00n/a12
May ’25CA$10.65
CA$13.46
+26.37%
15.20%CA$19.00CA$11.00CA$9.9212
Apr ’25CA$9.97
CA$13.00
+30.39%
13.42%CA$17.00CA$10.50CA$11.0211
Mar ’25CA$10.23
CA$12.48
+21.97%
14.26%CA$16.00CA$9.75CA$10.0911
Feb ’25CA$8.85
CA$12.48
+41.01%
14.78%CA$16.00CA$9.75CA$9.2312
Jan ’25CA$8.53
CA$12.75
+49.47%
17.87%CA$18.00CA$9.50CA$9.8613
Dec ’24CA$9.24
CA$12.77
+38.18%
16.98%CA$18.00CA$9.50CA$9.0014
Nov ’24CA$10.29
CA$12.70
+23.39%
17.39%CA$18.00CA$9.50CA$8.7514
Oct ’24CA$9.27
CA$12.37
+33.39%
16.30%CA$16.00CA$9.50CA$9.6313
Sep ’24CA$9.86
CA$12.10
+22.68%
16.33%CA$16.00CA$9.50CA$9.7214
Aug ’24CA$9.31
CA$12.10
+29.93%
16.33%CA$16.00CA$9.50CA$9.5514
Jul ’24CA$8.65
CA$11.76
+35.92%
16.63%CA$16.00CA$9.50CA$10.3814
Jun ’24CA$7.23
CA$11.94
+65.09%
16.15%CA$16.00CA$9.00CA$11.5914
May ’24CA$7.38
CA$12.08
+63.67%
15.72%CA$16.00CA$9.50CA$10.6514
AnalystConsensusTarget
Consensus Narrative from 12 Analysts
CA$13.58
Fair Value
18.8% undervalued intrinsic discount
12
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/05/27 12:45
End of Day Share Price 2025/05/27 00:00
Earnings2025/03/31
Annual Earnings2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Advantage Energy Ltd. is covered by 28 analysts. 4 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Laique Ahmad Amir ArifATB Capital Markets
Patrick O'RourkeATB Capital Markets
Randy OllenbergerBMO Capital Markets Equity Research