Advantage Energy Ltd.

TSX:AAV Stock Report

Market Cap: CA$2.0b

Advantage Energy Valuation

Is AAV undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AAV when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

CA$27.44
Fair Value
55.4% undervalued intrinsic discount
11
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: AAV (CA$12.23) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CA$27.44)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AAV is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AAV?

Key metric: As AAV is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for AAV. This is calculated by dividing AAV's market cap by their current earnings.
What is AAV's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio37.7x
EarningsCA$54.12m
Market CapCA$2.03b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does AAV's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for AAV vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average19.6x
VET Vermilion Energy
12.1x-87.78%CA$1.8b
PXT Parex Resources
10.3x6.13%CA$1.8b
IPCO International Petroleum
36.4x37.80%CA$2.7b
FRU Freehold Royalties
19.5xn/aCA$2.3b
AAV Advantage Energy
37.7x50.13%CA$2.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: AAV is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (37.7x) compared to the peer average (19.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does AAV's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the CA Oil and Gas Industry?

4 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
CNE Canacol Energy
1.9x20.83%US$56.73m
ALPS.U Alpine Summit Energy Partners
1xn/aUS$24.02m
KUB.H Carcetti Capital
0.7xn/aUS$5.82m
RZE.H Razor Energy
0.1xn/aUS$3.57m
No more companies available in this PE range
AAV 37.7xIndustry Avg. 12.4xNo. of Companies11PE0816243240+
4 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: AAV is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (37.7x) compared to the Canadian Oil and Gas industry average (12.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AAV's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AAV PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio37.7x
Fair PE Ratio21.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: AAV is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (37.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.9x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst AAV forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCA$12.23
CA$14.16
+15.77%
14.33%CA$20.00CA$12.00n/a11
Oct ’26CA$11.61
CA$14.16
+21.96%
14.33%CA$20.00CA$12.00n/a11
Sep ’26CA$11.11
CA$14.16
+27.44%
14.33%CA$20.00CA$12.00n/a11
Aug ’26CA$11.03
CA$14.13
+28.06%
13.95%CA$20.00CA$12.00n/a12
Jul ’26CA$11.83
CA$13.96
+17.99%
15.02%CA$20.00CA$11.50n/a12
Jun ’26CA$11.18
CA$13.58
+21.50%
16.66%CA$20.00CA$11.00n/a12
May ’26CA$9.92
CA$13.38
+34.83%
17.81%CA$20.00CA$11.00n/a12
Apr ’26CA$11.02
CA$13.73
+24.57%
17.11%CA$20.00CA$11.00n/a11
Mar ’26CA$10.09
CA$13.73
+36.05%
17.11%CA$20.00CA$11.00n/a11
Feb ’26CA$9.23
CA$13.73
+48.72%
17.11%CA$20.00CA$11.00n/a11
Jan ’26CA$9.86
CA$13.18
+33.69%
18.53%CA$20.00CA$11.00n/a11
Dec ’25CA$9.00
CA$13.23
+46.97%
18.40%CA$20.00CA$11.00n/a11
Nov ’25CA$8.75
CA$13.14
+50.13%
18.72%CA$20.00CA$11.00n/a11
Oct ’25CA$9.63
CA$13.55
+40.66%
17.27%CA$20.00CA$11.00CA$11.6111
Sep ’25CA$9.72
CA$13.95
+43.57%
15.00%CA$20.00CA$12.00CA$11.1111
Aug ’25CA$9.55
CA$13.95
+46.12%
15.00%CA$20.00CA$12.00CA$11.0311
Jul ’25CA$10.38
CA$13.95
+34.44%
14.93%CA$20.00CA$12.00CA$11.8311
Jun ’25CA$11.59
CA$13.46
+16.12%
15.20%CA$19.00CA$11.00CA$11.1812
May ’25CA$10.65
CA$13.46
+26.37%
15.20%CA$19.00CA$11.00CA$9.9212
Apr ’25CA$9.97
CA$13.00
+30.39%
13.42%CA$17.00CA$10.50CA$11.0211
Mar ’25CA$10.23
CA$12.48
+21.97%
14.26%CA$16.00CA$9.75CA$10.0911
Feb ’25CA$8.85
CA$12.48
+41.01%
14.78%CA$16.00CA$9.75CA$9.2312
Jan ’25CA$8.53
CA$12.75
+49.47%
17.87%CA$18.00CA$9.50CA$9.8613
Dec ’24CA$9.24
CA$12.77
+38.18%
16.98%CA$18.00CA$9.50CA$9.0014
Nov ’24CA$10.29
CA$12.70
+23.39%
17.39%CA$18.00CA$9.50CA$8.7514
Oct ’24CA$9.27
CA$12.37
+33.39%
16.30%CA$16.00CA$9.50CA$9.6313
CA$14.16
Fair Value
13.6% undervalued intrinsic discount
11
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/10/08 21:46
End of Day Share Price 2025/10/08 00:00
Earnings2025/06/30
Annual Earnings2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Advantage Energy Ltd. is covered by 28 analysts. 5 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Laique Ahmad Amir ArifATB Capital Markets
Patrick O'RourkeATB Capital Markets
Randy OllenbergerBMO Capital Markets Equity Research