Can Mixed Financials Have A Negative Impact on Topaz Energy Corp.'s 's (TSE:TPZ) Current Price Momentum?

Most readers would already know that Topaz Energy's (TSE:TPZ) stock increased by 9.0% over the past three months. However, the company's financials look a bit inconsistent and market outcomes are ultimately driven by long-term fundamentals, meaning that the stock could head in either direction. Particularly, we will be paying attention to Topaz Energy's ROE today.

Return on equity or ROE is an important factor to be considered by a shareholder because it tells them how effectively their capital is being reinvested. In simpler terms, it measures the profitability of a company in relation to shareholder's equity.

Check out our latest analysis for Topaz Energy

How Is ROE Calculated?

Return on equity can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Topaz Energy is:

3.8% = CA$46m ÷ CA$1.2b (Based on the trailing twelve months to March 2024).

The 'return' is the amount earned after tax over the last twelve months. One way to conceptualize this is that for each CA$1 of shareholders' capital it has, the company made CA$0.04 in profit.

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

Thus far, we have learned that ROE measures how efficiently a company is generating its profits. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or "retain", we are then able to evaluate a company's future ability to generate profits. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.

Topaz Energy's Earnings Growth And 3.8% ROE

It is quite clear that Topaz Energy's ROE is rather low. Even when compared to the industry average of 9.6%, the ROE figure is pretty disappointing. However, we we're pleasantly surprised to see that Topaz Energy grew its net income at a significant rate of 40% in the last five years. Therefore, there could be other reasons behind this growth. For example, it is possible that the company's management has made some good strategic decisions, or that the company has a low payout ratio.

We then performed a comparison between Topaz Energy's net income growth with the industry, which revealed that the company's growth is similar to the average industry growth of 39% in the same 5-year period.

Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. One good indicator of expected earnings growth is the P/E ratio which determines the price the market is willing to pay for a stock based on its earnings prospects. So, you may want to check if Topaz Energy is trading on a high P/E or a low P/E, relative to its industry.

Is Topaz Energy Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?

Topaz Energy has very a high three-year median payout ratio of 305% suggesting that the company's shareholders are getting paid from more than just the company's earnings. Despite this, the company's earnings grew significantly as we saw above. Although, it could be worth keeping an eye on the high payout ratio as that's a huge risk. Our risks dashboard should have the 2 risks we have identified for Topaz Energy.

Additionally, Topaz Energy has paid dividends over a period of three years which means that the company is pretty serious about sharing its profits with shareholders. Existing analyst estimates suggest that the company's future payout ratio is expected to drop to 196% over the next three years.

Conclusion

In total, we're a bit ambivalent about Topaz Energy's performance. While no doubt its earnings growth is pretty substantial, its ROE and earnings retention is quite poor. So while the company has managed to grow its earnings in spite of this, we are unconvinced if this growth could extend, especially during troubled times. That being so, a study of the latest analyst forecasts show that the company is expected to see a slowdown in its future earnings growth. To know more about the latest analysts predictions for the company, check out this visualization of analyst forecasts for the company.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com