Suncor Energy Valuation

Is SU undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of SU when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: SU (CA$55.06) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CA$107.16)

Significantly Below Fair Value: SU is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for SU?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

SU key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.7x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA5.3x
PEG Ratio-1.2x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does SU's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for SU vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average14.2x
CVE Cenovus Energy
11.2x1.3%CA$51.5b
IMO Imperial Oil
10.5x-6.2%CA$50.6b
CNQ Canadian Natural Resources
15.1x9.1%CA$111.8b
TRP TC Energy
20x15.9%CA$54.4b
SU Suncor Energy
9x-7.6%CA$70.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: SU is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9x) compared to the peer average (14.2x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does SU's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the CA Oil and Gas Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a7.7%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a7.7%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: SU is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9x) compared to the Canadian Oil and Gas industry average (12.4x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is SU's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

SU PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio9x
Fair PE Ratio12.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: SU is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.1x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst SU forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCA$55.06
CA$59.45
+8.0%
10.8%CA$79.00CA$50.00n/a19
May ’25CA$51.79
CA$55.11
+6.4%
6.7%CA$65.00CA$50.00n/a18
Apr ’25CA$50.64
CA$52.58
+3.8%
6.3%CA$60.00CA$46.00n/a18
Mar ’25CA$47.40
CA$51.74
+9.1%
7.9%CA$60.00CA$45.00n/a19
Feb ’25CA$43.89
CA$51.37
+17.0%
8.3%CA$60.00CA$45.00n/a19
Jan ’25CA$42.45
CA$53.58
+26.2%
13.0%CA$74.00CA$46.00n/a19
Dec ’24CA$44.53
CA$55.05
+23.6%
12.2%CA$74.00CA$47.00n/a19
Nov ’24CA$45.36
CA$54.47
+20.1%
12.6%CA$74.00CA$47.00n/a19
Oct ’24CA$46.71
CA$51.81
+10.9%
11.4%CA$69.00CA$44.00n/a18
Sep ’24CA$46.45
CA$50.67
+9.1%
11.4%CA$66.00CA$44.00n/a18
Aug ’24CA$41.20
CA$49.56
+20.3%
12.8%CA$66.00CA$42.00n/a18
Jul ’24CA$38.86
CA$50.76
+30.6%
12.8%CA$66.00CA$42.00n/a17
Jun ’24CA$38.54
CA$51.59
+33.9%
12.5%CA$66.00CA$42.00n/a17
May ’24CA$41.77
CA$53.17
+27.3%
10.9%CA$66.00CA$44.00CA$51.7918
Apr ’24CA$41.96
CA$53.42
+27.3%
10.2%CA$66.00CA$44.00CA$50.6419
Mar ’24CA$46.74
CA$53.79
+15.1%
10.0%CA$66.00CA$44.00CA$47.4019
Feb ’24CA$45.62
CA$52.65
+15.4%
11.9%CA$66.00CA$43.00CA$43.8920
Jan ’24CA$42.95
CA$53.85
+25.4%
9.1%CA$65.00CA$44.00CA$42.4520
Dec ’23CA$43.17
CA$54.05
+25.2%
9.2%CA$65.00CA$44.00CA$44.5319
Nov ’23CA$47.73
CA$54.11
+13.4%
10.4%CA$65.00CA$44.00CA$45.3619
Oct ’23CA$38.90
CA$53.79
+38.3%
13.2%CA$65.00CA$36.00CA$46.7119
Sep ’23CA$40.91
CA$55.16
+34.8%
13.6%CA$65.00CA$36.00CA$46.4519
Aug ’23CA$43.46
CA$57.83
+33.1%
9.8%CA$65.00CA$46.00CA$41.2018
Jul ’23CA$45.16
CA$58.26
+29.0%
9.6%CA$73.00CA$50.00CA$38.8619
Jun ’23CA$51.79
CA$53.42
+3.1%
7.8%CA$60.00CA$46.00CA$38.5419
May ’23CA$46.18
CA$50.40
+9.1%
11.9%CA$60.00CA$35.00CA$41.7720

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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