Suncor Energy Inc.

TSX:SU Stock Report

Market Cap: CA$71.9b

Suncor Energy Valuation

Is SU undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of SU when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: SU (CA$57.1) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CA$93.57)

Significantly Below Fair Value: SU is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for SU?

Key metric: As SU is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for SU. This is calculated by dividing SU's market cap by their current earnings.
What is SU's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio9x
EarningsCA$8.02b
Market CapCA$71.92b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does SU's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for SU vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average12.4x
IMO Imperial Oil
11.2x-5.7%CA$54.9b
CVE Cenovus Energy
11.2x5.0%CA$41.0b
TRP TC Energy
14x-2.3%CA$72.2b
CNQ Canadian Natural Resources
13.1x3.3%CA$99.3b
SU Suncor Energy
9x-12.5%CA$71.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: SU is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9x) compared to the peer average (12.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does SU's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the CA Oil and Gas Industry?

7 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
HAM Highwood Asset Management
1.3x-43.9%US$65.03m
ALPS.U Alpine Summit Energy Partners
1xn/aUS$24.02m
KUB.H Carcetti Capital
0.7xn/aUS$5.82m
GCOM Green Shift Commodities
1.4xn/aUS$4.93m
SU 9.0xIndustry Avg. 11.0xNo. of Companies11PE0816243240+
7 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: SU is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9x) compared to the Canadian Oil and Gas industry average (11x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is SU's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

SU PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio9x
Fair PE Ratio11.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: SU is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.9x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst SU forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCA$57.10
CA$61.57
+7.8%
8.9%CA$76.00CA$50.00n/a21
Nov ’25CA$52.46
CA$59.38
+13.2%
8.9%CA$73.00CA$50.00n/a21
Oct ’25CA$51.92
CA$60.05
+15.7%
9.1%CA$73.00CA$50.00n/a21
Sep ’25CA$54.66
CA$60.95
+11.5%
10.0%CA$77.00CA$50.00n/a21
Aug ’25CA$53.44
CA$60.29
+12.8%
9.6%CA$75.00CA$50.00n/a21
Jul ’25CA$52.15
CA$59.78
+14.6%
10.6%CA$79.00CA$50.00n/a20
Jun ’25CA$55.60
CA$59.83
+7.6%
10.5%CA$79.00CA$50.00n/a20
May ’25CA$51.79
CA$55.39
+6.9%
6.3%CA$65.00CA$50.00n/a18
Apr ’25CA$50.64
CA$52.58
+3.8%
6.3%CA$60.00CA$46.00n/a18
Mar ’25CA$47.40
CA$51.74
+9.1%
7.9%CA$60.00CA$45.00n/a19
Feb ’25CA$43.89
CA$51.37
+17.0%
8.3%CA$60.00CA$45.00n/a19
Jan ’25CA$42.45
CA$53.58
+26.2%
13.0%CA$74.00CA$46.00n/a19
Dec ’24CA$44.53
CA$55.05
+23.6%
12.2%CA$74.00CA$47.00n/a19
Nov ’24CA$45.36
CA$54.47
+20.1%
12.6%CA$74.00CA$47.00CA$52.4619
Oct ’24CA$46.71
CA$51.81
+10.9%
11.4%CA$69.00CA$44.00CA$51.9218
Sep ’24CA$46.45
CA$50.67
+9.1%
11.4%CA$66.00CA$44.00CA$54.6618
Aug ’24CA$41.20
CA$49.56
+20.3%
12.8%CA$66.00CA$42.00CA$53.4418
Jul ’24CA$38.86
CA$50.76
+30.6%
12.8%CA$66.00CA$42.00CA$52.1517
Jun ’24CA$38.54
CA$51.59
+33.9%
12.5%CA$66.00CA$42.00CA$55.6017
May ’24CA$41.77
CA$53.17
+27.3%
10.9%CA$66.00CA$44.00CA$51.7918
Apr ’24CA$41.96
CA$53.42
+27.3%
10.2%CA$66.00CA$44.00CA$50.6419
Mar ’24CA$46.74
CA$53.79
+15.1%
10.0%CA$66.00CA$44.00CA$47.4019
Feb ’24CA$45.62
CA$52.65
+15.4%
11.9%CA$66.00CA$43.00CA$43.8920
Jan ’24CA$42.95
CA$53.85
+25.4%
9.1%CA$65.00CA$44.00CA$42.4520
Dec ’23CA$43.17
CA$54.05
+25.2%
9.2%CA$65.00CA$44.00CA$44.5319
Nov ’23CA$47.73
CA$54.11
+13.4%
10.4%CA$65.00CA$44.00CA$45.3619

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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