Imperial Oil Limited

TSX:IMO Stock Report

Market Cap: CA$54.9b

Imperial Oil Valuation

Is IMO undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of IMO when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: IMO (CA$106.33) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CA$161.04)

Significantly Below Fair Value: IMO is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for IMO?

Key metric: As IMO is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for IMO. This is calculated by dividing IMO's market cap by their current earnings.
What is IMO's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio11.2x
EarningsCA$4.93b
Market CapCA$54.88b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does IMO's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for IMO vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average13.2x
SU Suncor Energy
9x-12.5%CA$71.9b
CVE Cenovus Energy
11.2x5.0%CA$41.0b
TRP TC Energy
14x-2.3%CA$72.2b
PPL Pembina Pipeline
18.6x4.2%CA$34.4b
IMO Imperial Oil
11.2x-5.7%CA$54.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: IMO is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.2x) compared to the peer average (13.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does IMO's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the CA Oil and Gas Industry?

7 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
HAM Highwood Asset Management
1.3x-43.9%US$65.03m
ALPS.U Alpine Summit Energy Partners
1xn/aUS$24.02m
KUB.H Carcetti Capital
0.7xn/aUS$5.82m
GCOM Green Shift Commodities
1.4xn/aUS$4.93m
IMO 11.2xIndustry Avg. 11.0xNo. of Companies11PE0816243240+
7 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: IMO is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.2x) compared to the Canadian Oil and Gas industry average (10.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is IMO's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

IMO PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio11.2x
Fair PE Ratio12.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: IMO is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.9x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst IMO forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCA$106.33
CA$103.50
-2.7%
9.0%CA$120.00CA$90.00n/a19
Nov ’25CA$98.57
CA$102.82
+4.3%
9.1%CA$120.00CA$90.00n/a19
Oct ’25CA$99.32
CA$100.47
+1.2%
7.6%CA$115.00CA$90.00n/a19
Sep ’25CA$101.50
CA$101.47
-0.03%
8.1%CA$115.00CA$90.00n/a19
Aug ’25CA$95.96
CA$100.47
+4.7%
8.8%CA$115.00CA$87.00n/a19
Jul ’25CA$93.28
CA$99.22
+6.4%
9.9%CA$120.00CA$87.00n/a18
Jun ’25CA$96.30
CA$99.61
+3.4%
9.8%CA$120.00CA$87.00n/a18
May ’25CA$92.70
CA$98.91
+6.7%
10.7%CA$120.00CA$81.00n/a18
Apr ’25CA$94.69
CA$90.43
-4.5%
8.3%CA$115.00CA$81.00n/a17
Mar ’25CA$86.17
CA$85.86
-0.4%
5.7%CA$95.00CA$77.00n/a19
Feb ’25CA$76.61
CA$85.33
+11.4%
6.1%CA$97.00CA$77.00n/a19
Jan ’25CA$75.48
CA$87.54
+16.0%
8.5%CA$110.00CA$80.00n/a19
Dec ’24CA$77.09
CA$88.07
+14.2%
8.3%CA$110.00CA$80.00n/a19
Nov ’24CA$80.41
CA$87.50
+8.8%
9.1%CA$110.00CA$78.00CA$98.5718
Oct ’24CA$83.66
CA$81.89
-2.1%
8.3%CA$98.00CA$72.00CA$99.3218
Sep ’24CA$78.81
CA$79.00
+0.2%
6.3%CA$96.00CA$72.00CA$101.5018
Aug ’24CA$71.06
CA$77.83
+9.5%
7.3%CA$96.00CA$71.00CA$95.9618
Jul ’24CA$67.78
CA$78.12
+15.3%
8.5%CA$96.00CA$68.00CA$93.2817
Jun ’24CA$62.68
CA$78.35
+25.0%
8.3%CA$96.00CA$68.00CA$96.3017
May ’24CA$67.88
CA$80.33
+18.3%
6.9%CA$97.00CA$72.00CA$92.7018
Apr ’24CA$68.73
CA$78.61
+14.4%
8.6%CA$97.00CA$67.00CA$94.6918
Mar ’24CA$68.85
CA$77.94
+13.2%
10.0%CA$97.00CA$61.00CA$86.1718
Feb ’24CA$70.33
CA$77.68
+10.5%
10.1%CA$97.00CA$61.00CA$76.6119
Jan ’24CA$65.95
CA$78.72
+19.4%
7.7%CA$95.00CA$64.00CA$75.4818
Dec ’23CA$75.69
CA$78.56
+3.8%
8.9%CA$95.00CA$64.00CA$77.0918
Nov ’23CA$75.13
CA$75.22
+0.1%
9.2%CA$95.00CA$64.00CA$80.4118

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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