Suncor Energy (TSX:SU): Valuation Check After 2026 Growth Guidance and Higher Share Buybacks

Suncor Energy (TSX:SU) just laid out its 2026 playbook, calling for higher oil and gas production, stronger refinery utilization, and a 10% bump in buybacks, all while pledging excess free cash to shareholders.

See our latest analysis for Suncor Energy.

That confidence is already reflected in the tape, with Suncor’s share price delivering a 17.51% year to date gain and its five year total shareholder return of 241.45% signaling strong, sustained momentum rather than a short term pop.

If this kind of capital disciplined growth story appeals to you, it could be a good moment to see what else fits that profile via fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

But with the stock already up strongly and trading just below analyst targets, is Suncor still flying under the value radar, or are investors now paying up for all that future free cash flow growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 8.3% Undervalued

Compared with the CA$61.01 last close, the most followed narrative sees Suncor’s fair value closer to the mid CA$60s, anchored by durable free cash flow.

The constructive near to medium-term refining environment, combined with Suncor's ability to export refined products and maximize downstream margins, enables the company to benefit from heightened global energy security concerns, supporting resilient future profit margins even amid commodity volatility.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how modest revenue slippage, slightly thinner margins, and a richer future earnings multiple can still justify a higher value than today’s price? The narrative walks through a detailed earnings glide path, share count shrinkage, and a valuation multiple usually reserved for faster growing sectors. Want to see which assumptions about future profitability and discount rates make that math work?

Result: Fair Value of $66.50 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, that upbeat scenario hinges on oil sands economics and policy, with tighter carbon regulation or faster decarbonization potentially squeezing margins and long term demand.

Find out about the key risks to this Suncor Energy narrative.

Build Your Own Suncor Energy Narrative

If the story sketched here does not quite fit your view, dive into the numbers yourself and craft a custom thesis in minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Suncor Energy research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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