Stock Analysis

The 11% return this week takes Obsidian Energy's (TSE:OBE) shareholders five-year gains to 885%

Published
TSX:OBE

Obsidian Energy Ltd. (TSE:OBE) shareholders might be concerned after seeing the share price drop 19% in the last quarter. But that does not change the realty that the stock's performance has been terrific, over five years. In fact, during that period, the share price climbed 885%. Impressive! So we don't think the recent decline in the share price means its story is a sad one. The most important thing for savvy investors to consider is whether the underlying business can justify the share price gain. It really delights us to see such great share price performance for investors.

The past week has proven to be lucrative for Obsidian Energy investors, so let's see if fundamentals drove the company's five-year performance.

View our latest analysis for Obsidian Energy

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

During the last half decade, Obsidian Energy became profitable. Sometimes, the start of profitability is a major inflection point that can signal fast earnings growth to come, which in turn justifies very strong share price gains.

You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

TSX:OBE Earnings Per Share Growth October 4th 2024

It's good to see that there was some significant insider buying in the last three months. That's a positive. On the other hand, we think the revenue and earnings trends are much more meaningful measures of the business. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on Obsidian Energy's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

A Different Perspective

Obsidian Energy shareholders are down 20% for the year, but the market itself is up 27%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 58% per year over half a decade. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Obsidian Energy that you should be aware of.

Obsidian Energy is not the only stock insiders are buying. So take a peek at this free list of small cap companies at attractive valuations which insiders have been buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Canadian exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.