Obsidian Energy Ltd.

TSX:OBE Stock Report

Market Cap: CA$1.0b

Obsidian Energy Valuation

Is OBE undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Future Cash Flow Value

What is the Fair Price of OBE when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Ultimate guide to DCF valuation for stock investing

Learn how to determine fair value like the best investors in the world.

Below Future Cash Flow Value: OBE (CA$15.47) is trading below our estimate of future cash flow value (CA$117.39)

Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value: OBE is trading below future cash flow value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for OBE?

Key metric: As OBE is barely profitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for OBE. This is calculated by dividing OBE's market cap by their current revenue.
What is OBE's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio2.1x
SalesCA$491.90m
Market CapCA$1.03b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does OBE's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for OBE vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average2.1x
SGY Surge Energy
2.4x19.17%CA$1.0b
FEC Frontera Energy
0.8xn/aCA$1.1b
AAV Advantage Energy
2.6x19.12%CA$1.7b
BIR Birchcliff Energy
2.5x11.00%CA$1.8b
OBE Obsidian Energy
2.1xn/aCA$1.0b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: OBE is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.1x) compared to the peer average (2.1x).

Historical Price to Sales Ratio

Historical Price to Sales Ratio compares a stock's price to its sales over time. Higher ratios indicate that investors are willing to pay more for the stock.

Fetching historical data

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does OBE's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the CA Oil and Gas Industry?

15 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
PKI Parkland
0.3x3.99%US$4.98b
GEI Gibson Energy
0.5x-1.12%US$3.66b
TWM Tidewater Midstream and Infrastructure
0.3x7.33%US$282.19m
ORC.B Orca Energy Group
0.5x-95.58%US$63.94m
OBE 2.1xIndustry Avg. 3.2xNo. of Companies17PS0246810+
15 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: OBE is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.1x) compared to the Canadian Oil and Gas industry average (3.2x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is OBE's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

OBE PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio2.1x
Fair PS Ration/a

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate OBE's Price-To-Sales Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst OBE forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCA$15.47
CA$18.00
+16.35%
9.07%CA$20.00CA$16.00n/a3
Jun ’27CA$16.00
CA$17.50
+9.38%
8.57%CA$19.00CA$15.00n/a4
May ’27CA$19.26
CA$15.38
-20.17%
13.68%CA$19.00CA$14.00n/a4
Apr ’27CA$12.35
CA$12.75
+3.24%
15.06%CA$15.00CA$10.00n/a4
Mar ’27CA$10.72
CA$10.75
+0.28%
7.71%CA$12.00CA$10.00n/a4
Feb ’27CA$9.84
CA$9.50
-3.46%
5.26%CA$10.00CA$9.00n/a4
Jan ’27CA$8.42
CA$9.75
+15.80%
2.56%CA$10.00CA$9.50n/a4
Dec ’26CA$8.64
CA$9.75
+12.85%
2.56%CA$10.00CA$9.50n/a4
Nov ’26CA$7.95
CA$9.75
+22.64%
2.56%CA$10.00CA$9.50n/a4
Oct ’26CA$9.22
CA$9.38
+1.68%
6.93%CA$10.00CA$8.50n/a4
Sep ’26CA$8.47
CA$9.38
+10.68%
6.93%CA$10.00CA$8.50n/a4
Aug ’26CA$8.19
CA$9.38
+14.47%
6.93%CA$10.00CA$8.50n/a4
Jul ’26CA$7.58
CA$9.13
+20.38%
5.97%CA$10.00CA$8.50n/a4
Jun ’26CA$6.57
CA$8.75
+33.18%
12.45%CA$10.00CA$7.00CA$16.004
May ’26CA$5.85
CA$10.38
+77.35%
22.44%CA$14.00CA$7.50CA$19.264
Apr ’26CA$8.62
CA$12.33
+43.08%
19.11%CA$14.00CA$9.00CA$12.353
Mar ’26CA$7.91
CA$12.50
+58.03%
16.97%CA$14.00CA$9.50CA$10.723
Feb ’26CA$7.48
CA$12.00
+60.43%
11.79%CA$14.00CA$10.00CA$9.844
Jan ’26CA$8.36
CA$12.25
+46.53%
12.07%CA$14.00CA$10.00CA$8.424
Dec ’25CA$8.01
CA$13.63
+70.10%
17.09%CA$17.00CA$10.50CA$8.644
Nov ’25CA$7.85
CA$13.63
+73.57%
17.09%CA$17.00CA$10.50CA$7.954
Oct ’25CA$8.09
CA$13.33
+64.81%
21.51%CA$17.00CA$10.00CA$9.223
Sep ’25CA$9.26
CA$14.33
+54.79%
17.40%CA$17.00CA$11.00CA$8.473
Aug ’25CA$9.74
CA$14.67
+50.58%
14.01%CA$17.00CA$12.00CA$8.193
Jul ’25CA$10.24
CA$15.00
+46.48%
10.89%CA$17.00CA$13.00CA$7.583
Jun ’25CA$10.43
CA$14.88
+42.62%
9.01%CA$17.00CA$13.50CA$6.574
CA$18
Fair Value
14.1% undervalued intrinsic discount
3
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/06/14 03:19
End of Day Share Price 2026/06/12 00:00
Earnings2026/03/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Obsidian Energy Ltd. is covered by 23 analysts. 1 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Patrick O'RourkeATB Cormark
Jonathan FlemingATB Cormark Historical (Cormark Securities)
Grant HoferBarclays