Stock Analysis

Here's Why We Think MEG Energy (TSE:MEG) Is Well Worth Watching

TSX:MEG
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It's common for many investors, especially those who are inexperienced, to buy shares in companies with a good story even if these companies are loss-making. But as Peter Lynch said in One Up On Wall Street, 'Long shots almost never pay off.' A loss-making company is yet to prove itself with profit, and eventually the inflow of external capital may dry up.

So if this idea of high risk and high reward doesn't suit, you might be more interested in profitable, growing companies, like MEG Energy (TSE:MEG). While profit isn't the sole metric that should be considered when investing, it's worth recognising businesses that can consistently produce it.

See our latest analysis for MEG Energy

MEG Energy's Improving Profits

Investors and investment funds chase profits, and that means share prices tend rise with positive earnings per share (EPS) outcomes. Which is why EPS growth is looked upon so favourably. It is awe-striking that MEG Energy's EPS went from CA$0.92 to CA$3.14 in just one year. While it's difficult to sustain growth at that level, it bodes well for the company's outlook for the future. This could point to the business hitting a point of inflection.

It's often helpful to take a look at earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) margins, as well as revenue growth, to get another take on the quality of the company's growth. The music to the ears of MEG Energy shareholders is that EBIT margins have grown from 14% to 25% in the last 12 months and revenues are on an upwards trend as well. Ticking those two boxes is a good sign of growth, in our book.

The chart below shows how the company's bottom and top lines have progressed over time. For finer detail, click on the image.

earnings-and-revenue-history
TSX:MEG Earnings and Revenue History April 28th 2023

The trick, as an investor, is to find companies that are going to perform well in the future, not just in the past. While crystal balls don't exist, you can check our visualization of consensus analyst forecasts for MEG Energy's future EPS 100% free.

Are MEG Energy Insiders Aligned With All Shareholders?

It should give investors a sense of security owning shares in a company if insiders also own shares, creating a close alignment their interests. So it is good to see that MEG Energy insiders have a significant amount of capital invested in the stock. Indeed, they hold CA$47m worth of its stock. This considerable investment should help drive long-term value in the business. Despite being just 0.8% of the company, the value of that investment is enough to show insiders have plenty riding on the venture.

Is MEG Energy Worth Keeping An Eye On?

MEG Energy's earnings per share have been soaring, with growth rates sky high. That EPS growth certainly is attention grabbing, and the large insider ownership only serves to further stoke our interest. At times fast EPS growth is a sign the business has reached an inflection point, so there's a potential opportunity to be had here. So based on this quick analysis, we do think it's worth considering MEG Energy for a spot on your watchlist. Even so, be aware that MEG Energy is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...

Although MEG Energy certainly looks good, it may appeal to more investors if insiders were buying up shares. If you like to see insider buying, then this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying, could be exactly what you're looking for.

Please note the insider transactions discussed in this article refer to reportable transactions in the relevant jurisdiction.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether MEG Energy is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.