Earnings Beat: Imperial Oil Limited Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models

Imperial Oil Limited (TSE:IMO) last week reported its latest first-quarter results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. Revenues missed analyst forecasts badly, coming in 27% below estimates at CA$13b. Equally surprising was the fact that statutory earnings per share of CA$2.52 beat analyst estimates by 15%. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Imperial Oil after the latest results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Imperial Oil's nine analysts is for revenues of CA$56.8b in 2025. This would reflect a notable 9.9% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to descend 11% to CA$8.55 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CA$58.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of CA$7.66 in 2025. While revenue forecasts have been revised downwards, the analysts look to have become more optimistic on the company's cost base, given the nice increase in to the earnings per share numbers.

Check out our latest analysis for Imperial Oil

There's been no real change to the average price target of CA$99.39, with the lower revenue and higher earnings forecasts not expected to meaningfully impact the company's valuation over a longer timeframe. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Imperial Oil at CA$118 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CA$80.00. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. The period to the end of 2025 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 13% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 16% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 3.1% per year. So although Imperial Oil is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Imperial Oil following these results. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. Even so, earnings are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Imperial Oil going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Imperial Oil .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.