Analyst Estimates: Here's What Brokers Think Of Imperial Oil Limited (TSE:IMO) After Its Annual Report

As you might know, Imperial Oil Limited (TSE:IMO) recently reported its full-year numbers. Results look mixed - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at CA$52b, statutory earnings beat expectations 3.2%, with Imperial Oil reporting profits of CA$9.03 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Imperial Oil

Following the latest results, Imperial Oil's seven analysts are now forecasting revenues of CA$60.5b in 2025. This would be a decent 17% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to descend 14% to CA$8.10 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CA$60.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of CA$9.52 in 2025. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the substantial drop in new EPS forecasts.

The consensus price target held steady at CA$104, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Imperial Oil analyst has a price target of CA$120 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CA$90.00. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Imperial Oil is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The period to the end of 2025 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 17% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 16% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 2.5% annually. So although Imperial Oil is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Imperial Oil. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at CA$104, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Imperial Oil analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for Imperial Oil you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.