Cenovus Energy Valuation

Is CVE.PRA undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of CVE.PRA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: CVE.PRA (CA$21) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CA$55.84)

Significantly Below Fair Value: CVE.PRA is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for CVE.PRA?

Key metric: As CVE.PRA is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for CVE.PRA. This is calculated by dividing CVE.PRA's market cap by their current earnings.
What is CVE.PRA's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	10.7x
Earnings	CA$3.70b
Market Cap	CA$40.51b

CVE.PRA key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.9x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	5x
PEG Ratio	2.1x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does CVE.PRA's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for CVE.PRA vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	12.9x
IMO Imperial Oil	10.9x	-5.7%	CA$54.9b
SU Suncor Energy	8.7x	-13.8%	CA$71.6b
PPL Pembina Pipeline	18.2x	4.1%	CA$33.8b
TRP TC Energy	14x	-2.3%	CA$71.2b
CVE.PRA Cenovus Energy	10.7x	5.1%	CA$40.5b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: CVE.PRA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.7x) compared to the peer average (12.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does CVE.PRA's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the CA Oil and Gas Industry?

7 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
HAM Highwood Asset Management	1.2x	-43.9%	US$63.27m
ALPS.U Alpine Summit Energy Partners	1x	n/a	US$24.02m
KUB.H Carcetti Capital	0.7x	n/a	US$5.82m
GCOM Green Shift Commodities	1.4x	n/a	US$4.41m

7 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: CVE.PRA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.7x) compared to the Canadian Oil and Gas industry average (11.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is CVE.PRA's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

CVE.PRA PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	10.7x
Fair PE Ratio	15x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: CVE.PRA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Insufficient data to show price forecast.

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