Stock Analysis

Investors are selling off Mogo (TSE:MOGO), lack of profits no doubt contribute to shareholders one-year loss

TSX:MOGO
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Investors can approximate the average market return by buying an index fund. While individual stocks can be big winners, plenty more fail to generate satisfactory returns. For example, the Mogo Inc. (TSE:MOGO) share price is down 45% in the last year. That's disappointing when you consider the market declined 3.9%. However, the longer term returns haven't been so bad, with the stock down 28% in the last three years. The last week also saw the share price slip down another 11%.

If the past week is anything to go by, investor sentiment for Mogo isn't positive, so let's see if there's a mismatch between fundamentals and the share price.

View our latest analysis for Mogo

Mogo isn't currently profitable, so most analysts would look to revenue growth to get an idea of how fast the underlying business is growing. Shareholders of unprofitable companies usually expect strong revenue growth. That's because it's hard to be confident a company will be sustainable if revenue growth is negligible, and it never makes a profit.

In just one year Mogo saw its revenue fall by 1.6%. That's not what investors generally want to see. The stock price has languished lately, falling 45% in a year. That seems pretty reasonable given the lack of both profits and revenue growth. We think most holders must believe revenue growth will improve, or else costs will decline.

You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
TSX:MOGO Earnings and Revenue Growth May 31st 2023

We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. So we recommend checking out this free report showing consensus forecasts

A Different Perspective

Mogo shareholders are down 45% for the year, falling short of the market return. The market shed around 3.9%, no doubt weighing on the stock price. Shareholders have lost 9% per year over the last three years, so the share price drop has become steeper, over the last year; a potential symptom of as yet unsolved challenges. Although Baron Rothschild famously said to "buy when there's blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own", he also focusses on high quality stocks with solid prospects. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Like risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Mogo (of which 1 doesn't sit too well with us!) you should know about.

There are plenty of other companies that have insiders buying up shares. You probably do not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Canadian exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Mogo is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.